The Elephant
A resource for journalists, politicians, policy makers, activists and citizens interested in climate change and the environmental emergency
The ElephantA resource for journalists, politicians, policy makers, activists and citizens interested in climate change and the environmental emergency
Visit: nature.com
Increasing frequency and intensity of the most extreme wildfires on Earth - Nature Ecology & Evolution
2024-06-24 in NatureAnalysis of fire radiative power derived from satellite data finds that the frequency of extreme fire events increased 2.2-fold from 2003 to 2023 and that these increases were mostly driven by extreme fires in temperate conifer and boreal forest biomes.
Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity - Scientific Reports
2024-06-22 in NatureIn contrast to most integrated assessment models, with limited transparency on damage functions and recursive temporal dynamics, we use a unique large-dimensional computational global climate and trade model, GTAP-DynW, to directly project the possible intertemporal impacts of water and heat stress on global food supply and food security to 2050. The GTAP-DynW model uses GTAP production and trade data for 141 countries and regions, with varying water and heat stress baselines, and results are aggregated into 30 countries/regions and 30 commodity sectors. Blue water stress projections are drawn from WRI source material and a GTAP...
Scientists’ identities shape engagement with environmental activism
2024-05-08 in NatureScientists are increasingly joining environmental movements. As knowledge producers and influential figures in society, scientists are uniquely positioned to drive change. Here we explore how scientist identity shapes engagement in environmental activism using qualitative and quantitative data from a multinational survey of 329 scientists from 41 countries. Scientist identity content, specifically perception of the science-activism relationship, was a stronger explanatory variable than strength of identification as a scientist. Perceiving a harmonious relationship between science and activism, endorsing environmental stewardship...
A climate-induced tree species bottleneck for forest management in Europe - Nature Ecology & Evolution
2024-04-29 in NatureSpecies distribution modelling for 69 European tree species under current climate conditions and projected conditions to 2100 (in decadal steps) demonstrates that, for climate suitability to be maintained throughout a tree’s lifespan, many fewer tree species are available to forest managers than are currently used.
Extreme weather should be defined according to impacts on climate-vulnerable communities - Nature Climate Change
2024-04-23 in NatureDefining thresholds for extreme weather events is important for adaptation but often ignores impacts on climate-vulnerable communities. This research finds current practices do not capture experiences of women in informal settlements and self-reported impact data could help to address the issue.
Mechanisms, detection and impacts of species redistributions under climate change
2024-04-18 in NatureShifts in species distributions are a common ecological response to climate change, and global temperature rise is often hypothesized as the primary driver. However, the directions and rates of distribution shifts are highly variable across species, systems, and studies, complicating efforts to manage and anticipate biodiversity responses to anthropogenic change. In this Review, we summarize approaches to documenting species range shifts, discuss why observed range shifts often do not match our expectations, and explore the impacts of species range shifts on nature and society. The majority (59%) of documented range shifts are d...
The economic commitment of climate change - Nature
2024-04-17 in NatureAnalysis of projected sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation show an income reduction of 19% of the world economy within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices.
The rise of eco-anxiety: scientists wake up to the mental-health toll of climate change
2024-04-10 in NatureResearchers want to unpick how climate change affects mental health around the world — from lives that are disrupted by catastrophic weather to people who are anxious about the future. Researchers want to unpick how climate change affects mental health around the world — from lives that are disrupted by catastrophic weather to people who are anxious about the future.
Bird flu outbreak in US cows: why scientists are concerned
2024-04-08 in NatureA virus that has killed hundreds of millions of birds has now infected cattle in six US states, but the threat to humans is currently low. A virus that has killed hundreds of millions of birds has now infected cattle in six US states, but the threat to humans is currently low.
Increase in concerns about climate change following climate strikes and civil disobedience in Germany - Nature Communications
2024-04-04 in NatureClimate movements aim to raise public awareness of climate change through protests, but their efficacy is debated. Here, the authors show that concerns about climate change increased in Germany after climate strikes and non-violent acts of civil disobedience.
New water accounting reveals why the Colorado River no longer reaches the sea - Communications Earth & Environment
2024-03-28 in NatureComprehensive accounting for consumptive water uses in the Colorado River Basin, United States indicates that irrigated agriculture consumes half of all river flows; nearly two-thirds of agricultural water goes to cattle feed crops.
Australian human-induced native forest regeneration carbon offset projects have limited impact on changes in woody vegetation cover and carbon removals - Communications Earth & Environment
2024-03-26 in NatureForest regeneration carbon offset projects in Australia show only small increases in woody vegetation cover relative to credited regeneration, and changes are comparable to those in the surrounding area, according to an analysis of 182 project.
‘Exhausted and insulted’: how harsh visa-application policies are hobbling global research
2024-03-26 in NatureInstitutions and individuals from low- and middle-income countries are wasting time, effort and money trying to get visas for research travel, only to be rejected. A new approach is needed. Institutions and individuals from low- and middle-income countries are wasting time, effort and money trying to get visas for research travel, only to be rejected. A new approach is needed.
Global warming and heat extremes to enhance inflationary pressures - Communications Earth & Environment
2024-03-21 in NatureFuture global warming and intensifying heat extremes will have strong, non-linear and persistent upward impacts on inflation across the world, according to an analysis that combines physical projections with causal historical impacts determined by fixed-effects regression analysis.
How does public perception of climate protest influence support for climate action? - npj Climate Action
2024-03-20 in NatureIncreasingly, climate activists use nonviolent civil disobedience (NVCD) to raise awareness about the need to end fossil fuel use. In two small studies we explored the potential of NVCD to enhance U.S. public support for this goal. Study 1 showed that some NVCD actions (e.g., marches and sit-ins) and some targets of those actions (e.g., fossil fuel companies) are seen as more acceptable than other targets (e.g., ordinary people). Study 2 suggested that perceived acceptable NVCD actions against perceived acceptable targets may be more effective than other forms of NVCD. We provide some potential directions for future research to ...
Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory
2024-03-19 in NatureTaking into account all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2 °C more last year than climate scientists expected. More and better data are urgently needed. Taking into account all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2 °C more last year than climate scientists expected. More and better data are urgently needed.
Realizing the full potential of behavioural science for climate change mitigation - Nature Climate Change
2024-03-15 in NatureBehavioural science offers valuable insights for mitigating climate change, but existing work focuses mostly on consumption and lacks coordination across disciplines. In this Perspective, the authors make six recommendations for improving the quality and impact of behavioural research on mitigation.
Marine heatwaves disrupt ecosystem structure and function via altered food webs and energy flux - Nature Communications
2024-03-13 in NatureThis work leverages a new diet database and six long term monitoring efforts of 361 taxa to build comparable pre- and post-heatwave ecosystem models. The study provides empirical demonstration of changes in ecosystem-wide patterns of energy flux and biomass in response to marine heatwaves.
US oil and gas system emissions from nearly one million aerial site measurements - Nature
2024-03-13 in NatureWe integrate approximately one million aerial site measurements into regional emissions inventories for six regions in the USA, finding methane emission intensities that vary by more than a factor of ten.
Why the world cannot afford the rich
2024-03-12 in NatureEquality is essential for sustainability. The science is clear — people in more-equal societies are more trusting and more likely to protect the environment than are those in unequal, consumer-driven ones. Equality is essential for sustainability. The science is clear — people in more-equal societies are more trusting and more likely to protect the environment than are those in unequal, consumer-driven ones.
Tagged under: Economics | Consumption | Capitalism | Sustainability
Landmark study links microplastics to serious health problems
2024-03-06 in NaturePeople who had tiny plastic particles lodged in a key blood vessel were more likely to experience heart attack, stroke or death during a three-year study. People who had tiny plastic particles lodged in a key blood vessel were more likely to experience heart attack, stroke or death during a three-year study.
Tagged under: Health | Microplastics and Nanoplastics
Geologists reject the Anthropocene as Earth’s new epoch — after 15 years of debate
2024-03-06 in NatureBut some are now challenging the vote, saying there were ‘procedural irregularities’. But some are now challenging the vote, saying there were ‘procedural irregularities’.
Tagged under: Science
Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2024-03-05 in NatureWith continued anthropogenic warming, an ice-free Arctic (sea ice area <1 million km2) is inevitable. This Review outlines the various characteristics of an ice-free Arctic, highlighting that future emission trajectories will determine where, how frequently and how long the Arctic will be ice free each year.
Megafires are here to stay — and blaming only climate change won’t help
2024-03-05 in NatureIt’s not just global warming that’s driving the growth in destructive wildfires. Better land management is the first step to mitigating the risks. It’s not just global warming that’s driving the growth in destructive wildfires. Better land management is the first step to mitigating the risks.
Tagged under: Wildfires
This methane-sniffing satellite will leave climate polluters nowhere to hide
2024-03-01 in NatureSet to launch as early as next week, MethaneSAT will partner with Google to map leaks from the oil and gas industry and beyond. Set to launch as early as next week, MethaneSAT will partner with Google to map leaks from the oil and gas industry and beyond.
Impact of extreme weather events on healthcare utilization and mortality in the United States - Nature Medicine
2024-02-29 in NatureAnalysis of 42 severe weather disasters (floods, storms and cyclones) in the United States between 2011 and 2016 reported associations with increased emergency department utilization and mortality in affected counties for up to 6 weeks.
Tagged under: Health
Progressive unanchoring of Antarctic ice shelves since 1973 - Nature
2024-02-21 in NaturePinning-point changes over three epochs spanning the periods 1973–1989, 1989–2000 and 2000−2022 were measured, and by proxy the changes to ice-shelf thickness back to 1973–1989 were inferred.
Scientists under arrest: the researchers taking action over climate change
2024-02-21 in NatureFed up with a lack of political progress in solving the climate problem, some researchers are becoming activists to slow global warming. Fed up with a lack of political progress in solving the climate problem, some researchers are becoming activists to slow global warming.
Tagged under: Activism
Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system - Nature
2024-02-14 in NatureAnalyses of drivers of water stress are used to predict likely trajectories of the Amazon forest system and suggests potential actions that could prevent system collapse.
Tagged under: Amazon Rainforest | Collapse | Trees
Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe - Nature Communications
2024-02-08 in NatureWest Nile Virus is emerging as an important pathogen in Europe, likely driven by recent climate and land-use changes. Here, the authors estimate the extent of the climate change-driven impact by modelling the change in West Nile Virus ecological suitability across the continent in the absence of climate change.
The world has warmed 1.5 °C, according to 300-year-old sponges
2024-02-05 in NatureBy the time that official temperature records began, global temperatures had already risen by half a degree. By the time that official temperature records began, global temperatures had already risen by half a degree.
Indian forest act faces challenge in Supreme Court
2024-01-30 in NatureEcologists, bureaucrats and conservationists say India’s amended Forest Conservation Act will reduce biodiversity and harm livelihoods. Ecologists, bureaucrats and conservationists say India’s amended Forest Conservation Act will reduce biodiversity and harm livelihoods.
Tagged under: Trees
Groundwater decline is global but not universal
2024-01-24 in NatureMeasurements of groundwater levels in 170,000 wells reveal the global extent of groundwater decline. But the data also show that such depletion is not inevitable in a changing climate, providing hope for a resilient water future. Measurements of groundwater in 170,000 wells.
Tagged under: Drought | Water Resources
Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally - Nature
2024-01-24 in NatureAnalysis of about 170,000 monitoring wells and 1,693 aquifer systems worldwide shows that extensive and often accelerating groundwater declines are widespread in the twenty-first century, but that groundwater levels are recovering in some cases.
Tagged under: Water Resources
Extreme fire weather in Chile driven by climate change and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - Scientific Reports
2024-01-23 in NatureA string of fierce fires broke out in Chile in the austral summer 2023, just six years after the record-breaking 2017 fire season. Favored by extreme weather conditions, fire activity has dramatically risen in recent years in this Andean country. A total of 1.7 million ha. burned during the last decade, tripling figures of the prior decade. Six of the seven most destructive fire seasons on record occurred since 2014. Here, we analyze the progression during the last two decades of the weather conditions associated with increased fire risk in Central Chile (30°–39° S). Fire weather conditions (including high temperat...
Tagged under: Drought | Oceans | Chile | El Niño | Heatwaves | Wildfires
Oceans break heat records five years in a row
2024-01-15 (or before) in NatureThe heat stored in the world’s oceans increased by the greatest margin ever in 2023. The heat stored in the world’s oceans increased by the greatest margin ever in 2023.
Tagged under: Oceans
Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines - Nature Communications
2024-01-09 in NatureUsing a global synthesis of size spectra data from pelagic food webs, this study finds that size structure is not driven by temperature as often suggested, but by the nutrient status of the system. This means that modest phytoplankton declines projected for key fishing grounds at mid-latitudes will amplify into substantial reductions in the supportable biomass of fish.
Tagged under: Fish
African savanna raptors show evidence of widespread population collapse and a growing dependence on protected areas - Nature Ecology & Evolution
2024-01-04 in NatureA compilation of survey data from pre- and post-2000 for 42 raptor species across parts of West, Central, East and southern Africa shows 88% of species in population decline and reveals trends across regions, protected areas and species size.
Tagged under: Collapse | Africa
Robust acceleration of Earth system heating observed over the past six decades - Scientific Reports
2024-01-02 (or before) in NatureGlobal heating of the Earth system is unequivocal. However, detecting an acceleration of Earth heating has remained elusive to date, despite suggestive evidence of a potential increase in heating rates. In this study, we demonstrate that since 1960, the warming of the world ocean has accelerated at a relatively consistent pace of 0.15 ± 0.05 (W/m2)/decade, while the land, cryosphere, and atmosphere have exhibited an accelerated pace of 0.013 ± 0.003 (W/m2)/decade. This has led to a substantial increase in ocean warming, with a magnitude of 0.91 ± 0.80 W/m2 between th...
Tagged under: Oceans | Global Warming
The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones - Nature
2023-12-27 (or before) in NatureAlthough cyclones in the tropical Atlantic seem to be getting stronger in response to increasing ocean temperatures, no clear trends of this sort have been discerned in other tropical regions. A new analysis of cyclone intensity using satellite data suggests that there is a global trend, but that it is quite subtle. The main changes appear not in an upward trend of average cyclone intensity, but rather in the maximum speeds attained by cyclones during their lifetimes, the stronger the cyclone, the greater the change.
Approaching 1.5 °C: how will we know we’ve reached this crucial warming mark?
2023-12-24 (or before) in NatureAssessing global mean temperature rise using the average warming over the previous one or two decades will delay formal recognition of when Earth breaches the Paris agreement’s 1.5 °C guard rail. Here is what’s needed to avoid the wait. Assessing global mean temperature rise using the average warming over the previous one or two decades will delay formal recognition of when Earth breaches the Paris agreement’s 1.5 °C guard rail. Here is what’s needed to avoid the wait.
Surge in extreme forest fires fuels global emissions
2023-12-20 in NatureClimate change and human activities have led to more frequent and intense forest blazes over the past two decades. Climate change and human activities have led to more frequent and intense forest blazes over the past two decades.
Tagged under: Trees
Evidence lacking for a pending collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation - Nature Climate Change
2023-12-20 (or before) in NatureTagged under: Collapse
Undiscovered bird extinctions obscure the true magnitude of human-driven extinction waves - Nature Communications
2023-12-19 in NatureThe true number of human-driven bird extinctions is likely larger than we think. Here, the authors combine recorded extinctions with estimates from the fossil record to suggest that ~1400 bird species have gone extinct since the Late Pleistocene.
The climate disaster strikes: what the data say
2023-12-13 in NatureA series of impact assessments highlight India’s vulnerability to extreme weather events and the risks they pose to human health. A series of impact assessments highlight India’s vulnerability to extreme weather events and the risks they pose to human health.
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Climate Change Impacts | India | Health
We need to talk about water
2023-12-13 in NatureWater needs to be central to India’s efforts to tackle floods, pollution and urbanization. Water needs to be central to India’s efforts to tackle floods, pollution and urbanization.
Tagged under: Climate Change Adaption | Water Resources | India
More than 10,000 research papers were retracted in 2023 — a new record
2023-12-12 in NatureThe number of articles being retracted rose sharply this year. Integrity experts say that this is only the tip of the iceberg. The number of articles being retracted rose sharply this year. Integrity experts say that this is only the tip of the iceberg.
Tagged under: Science
Insights into countries’ exposure and vulnerability to food trade shocks from network-based simulations - Scientific Reports
2023-12-08 (or before) in NatureIn the context of a global food system, the dynamics associated to international food trade have become key determinants of food security. In this paper, we resort to a diffusion model to simulate how shocks to domestic food production propagate through the international food trade network and study the relationship between trade openness and vulnerability. The results of our simulations suggest that low-income and food insecure countries tend to be the more exposed to external shocks and, at the same time, they are usually not in a position to take full advantage of international food trade when it comes to shield themselves fr...
Tagged under: Food Production and Consumption
Ending extreme poverty has a negligible impact on global greenhouse gas emissions - Nature
2023-11-29 in NatureGlobal emissions associated with the economic growth needed to alleviate extreme poverty are limited.
Heat pump supply chain environmental impact reduction to improve the UK energy sustainability, resiliency and security - Scientific Reports
2023-11-23 in NatureVarious heat pump technologies are examined from an environmental perspective using a life cycle assessment approach. The investigated heat pump systems utilize air, ground, and water as their energy sources. Additionally, an innovative heat pump powered by green hydrogen is investigated in this study, to evaluate its environmental impacts and potential to commercialise on a large scale. A range of supply chain scenarios is explored, considering the main suppliers of the UK market. The reshoring heat pump industry and supply chain are evaluated to enhance energy resilience and security within the UK. The findings indicate that t...
Tagged under: Net Zero | Electricity Grid | Sustainability
Community forest governance and synergies among carbon, biodiversity and livelihoods - Nature Climate Change
2023-11-23 in NatureForest restoration is emerging as a key climate mitigation strategy. In this study, the authors find that formalized local control and substantive involvement in rule-making are associated with synergies for carbon sequestration, biodiversity and rural livelihoods.
Tagged under: Trees | Climate Change Mitigation
Risk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions - Nature Communications
2023-11-22 in NatureWhile accounting for intrinsic differences between short- and long-lived greenhouse gases, solely relying on soil carbon sequestration in grasslands to offset warming effect of emissions from current ruminant systems is not feasible
Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential - Nature
2023-11-13 (or before) in NatureAnalysis of ground-sourced and satellite-derived models reveals a global forest carbon potential of 226 Gt outside agricultural and urban lands, with a difference of only 12% across these modelling approaches.
Tagged under: Trees
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets - Nature Climate Change
2023-10-30 in NatureThe remaining carbon budget (RCB) is a critical estimate of the carbon that can be emitted while staying within a particular temperature threshold. This study provides an updated assessment of the RCB using recent data and robustness checks to increase confidence in the estimate.
Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends - Nature Communications
2023-10-27 (or before) in NatureHeat extremes in Western Europe have increased by an outstanding amount in the last 70 years. Climate models simulate weaker trends. This is largely due to atmospheric circulation trends, favouring heat, missed by climate models.
Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century - Nature Climate Change
2023-10-23 in NatureThe authors use a regional ocean model to project ocean-driven ice-shelf melt in the Amundsen Sea. Already committed rapid ocean warming drives increased melt, regardless of emission scenario, suggesting extensive ice loss from West Antarctica.
Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates - Scientific Reports
2023-10-19 in NatureQuickly intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) are exceptionally hazardous for Atlantic coastlines. An analysis of observed maximum changes in wind speed for Atlantic TCs from 1971 to 2020 indicates that TC intensification rates have already changed as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the planet and oceans. Mean maximum TC intensification rates are up to 28.7% greater in a modern era (2001–2020) compared to a historical era (1971–1990). In the modern era, it is about as likely for TCs to intensify by at least 50 kts in 24 h, and more likely for TCs to intensify by at least 20 kts within 24&am...
Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet - Nature
2023-10-18 in NatureSimulations using two state-of-the-art ice-sheet models show that abrupt melting of the Greenland ice sheet following overshooting of the global mean temperature critical threshold can be mitigated by subsequent cooling to below 1.5 °C.
Greenland’s massive ice sheet is melting — here’s how to save it
2023-10-18 in NatureThe ice sheet could experience runaway melting if the world overshoots climate targets, but even then quick action could stabilize it. The ice sheet could experience runaway melting if the world overshoots climate targets, but even then quick action could stabilize it.
Tagged under: Ice Melting
Reply to: Atlantic circulation change still uncertain - Nature Geoscience
2023-10-15 (or before) in NatureIrreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot - Communications Earth & Environment
2023-10-12 (or before) in NatureChanges in ocean temperature and oxygen could drive a centuries-long irreversible loss in the habitable volume of the upper 1000 m of the world ocean due the impact on organisms’ metabolic functioning, suggests a multi-model analysis.
Tagged under: Oceans
Unfounded concerns about photovoltaic module toxicity and waste are slowing decarbonization - Nature Physics
2023-10-05 in NatureUnsubstantiated claims that fuel growing public concern over the toxicity of photovoltaic modules and their waste are slowing their deployment. Clarifying these issues will help to facilitate the decarbonization that our world depends on.
Tagged under: Solar Energy | Climate Change Denial and Disinformation
The UK’s rollback of climate policies will cost its citizens and the world
2023-10-01 (or before) in NatureIncoherent new climate-policy messages by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will dissolve the UK’s climate leadership, stifle innovation’s momentum and cost consumers. Incoherent new climate-policy messages by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will dissolve the UK’s climate leadership, stifle innovation’s momentum and cost consumers.
Tagged under: Rishi Sunak
Climate change will force new animal encounters — and boost viral outbreaks
2023-09-24 (or before) in NatureModelling study is first to project how global warming will increase virus swapping between species. Modelling study is first to project how global warming will increase virus swapping between species.
Tagged under: Global Warming | Climate Change
Photocatalytic phosphine-mediated water activation for radical hydrogenation - Nature
2023-09-08 (or before) in NatureUsing a photocatalytic phosphine-mediated radical process under mild conditions enables direct hydrogen atom transfer to closed-shell π systems for activation of water.
Tagged under: Hydrogen
Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information - Nature Communications
2023-09-07 (or before) in NatureEmerging limitations on climate and low-carbon technology would require adjusting our 15.C climate change mitigation pathways. However, this could increase average annual emissions reductions to around 3GtCO2/year using a broad portfolio of mitigation measures.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Climate Change Mitigation
Po river drought in 2022 was the worst of the last two centuries
2023-09-06 (or before) in NatureAnalysis shows last year’s water shortage was by far the most severe since records began, most probably triggered by global warming. Analysis shows last year’s water shortage was by far the most severe since records began, most probably triggered by global warming.
Tagged under: Drought | Rivers
Envisioning a future with climate change - Nature Climate Change
2023-09-06 (or before) in NatureClimate change research and assessments, including the most recent IPCC report, paint an increasingly dire picture of the future. However, the assumption that the future will be worse than the present may be wrong for many aspects of human well-being.
Tagged under: IPCC | Climate Change
Benthic δ18O records Earth’s energy imbalance - Nature Geoscience
2023-09-03 (or before) in NatureWhile generally tracking Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, the Earth gained energy during cold millennial scale events throughout the past 150,000 years, according to an analysis of benthic oxygen isotopes.
Tagged under: Earth Energy Imbalance
Contribution of prioritized urban nature-based solutions allocation to carbon neutrality - Nature Climate Change
2023-09-02 (or before) in NatureEffective spatial allocation of the nature-based solutions is important for city mitigation through various pathways. This Analysis allocates prioritized urban nature-based solutions to major European cities and estimates their potential contribution to emission reductions, then the carbon neutrality targets.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Climate Change Mitigation
Even modest climate change may lead to major transitions in boreal forests - Nature
2023-08-29 (or before) in NatureThe survival of southern boreal tree saplings decreases in response to even modest warming and reduced rainfall, which,together with species-specific growth responses, could lead to regeneration failure of currently dominant tree species.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Trees
Earth’s hottest month: these charts show what happened in July and what comes next
2023-08-28 (or before) in NatureThe planet has warmed 1.2 ºC on average, but that’s enough to produce big extremes. The planet has warmed 1.2 ºC on average, but that’s enough to produce big extremes.
Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments - Nature Sustainability
2023-08-28 (or before) in NatureGlobal responses of crops to warmer temperatures will affect agricultural sustainability. This study of maize, rice, soybean and wheat projects yield reductions of 3–13% under 2 °C warming.
Tagged under: Sustainability
The tropical forest carbon cycle and climate change - Nature
2023-08-25 (or before) in NatureTropical forests currently make a neutral contribution to the global carbon cycle, but they are likely to become a carbon source in the near future.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Trees
"We are killing this ecosystem": the scientists tracking the Amazon's fading health
2023-08-25 (or before) in NatureClimate change, deforestation and other human threats are driving the rainforest towards a tipping point of sustainability. Researchers are racing to chart the Amazon’s future.
Tagged under: Deforestation | Amazon Rainforest | Climate Change | Health | Tipping Points | Sustainability
Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality - Nature Communications
2023-08-24 in NatureThe risk of heat-mortality is increasing sharply. The authors report that heat-mortality levels of a 1-in-100-year summer in the climate of 2000 can be expected once every ten to twenty years in the current climate and at least once in five years with 2 °C of global warming.
Record low 2022 Antarctic sea ice led to catastrophic breeding failure of emperor penguins - Communications Earth & Environment
2023-08-24 (or before) in NatureFour out of five emperor penguin colonies in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica experienced breeding failure in spring 2022 due to unprecedented sea ice loss, according to an analysis of satellite images over 2018–2022.
Tagged under: Antarctic
Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds - Nature
2023-08-23 (or before) in NatureGround truthed thermal data from a new NASA satellite combined with experimental warming data from three continents in an empirical model suggests that tropical forests are closer to a high temperature threshold than previously thought.
Tagged under: Trees
Thousands of scientists are cutting back on Twitter, seeding angst and uncertainty
2023-08-21 (or before) in NatureA Nature survey reveals scientists’ reasons for leaving the social-media platform now known as X, and what they are doing to build and maintain a sense of community. A Nature survey reveals scientists’ reasons for leaving the social-media platform now known as X, and what they are doing to build and maintain a sense of community.
Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions - Nature Climate Change
2023-08-21 (or before) in NatureThe Paris Agreement has increased the incentive to verify reported anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with independent Earth system observations. Reliable verification requires a step change in our understanding of carbon cycle variability.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Seeing carbon dioxide emissions through the trees - Nature Climate Change
2023-08-21 (or before) in NatureAtmospheric observations can quantify anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, but variability in net land carbon exchange delays the detection of changes. Now, research improves understanding of this variability and allows earlier detection of emissions changes.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Trees
Navigating the continuum between adaptation and maladaptation - Nature Climate Change
2023-08-21 (or before) in NatureReducing the risk of maladaptation is critical to successful climate adaptation, yet such dichotomy hampers nuanced assessments of adaptation outcomes. The authors provide a framework to assess relevant dimensions of adaptation outcomes on a continuum and apply it to various adaptation options.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Surprising stability of recent global carbon cycling enables improved fossil fuel emission verification - Nature Climate Change
2023-08-21 (or before) in NatureVerification of reported fossil fuel emissions is critical for tracking the progress of the Paris Agreement. Here, a simple model suggests the stability of the sensitivity of net carbon exchange to climate and carbon dioxide forcing and validates reported global emissions with improved accuracy.
Tagged under: Climate Change
The unexpected radiative impact of the Hunga Tonga eruption of 15th January 2022 - Communications Earth & Environment
2023-08-09 (or before) in NaturePerturbations to the global climate system changed from net cooling to net heating during the first month after the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha-apai eruption, according to radiative forcing estimates based on satellite, ground-based, in situ and radiosonde observations.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C - Nature Climate Change
2023-08-09 (or before) in NatureThe Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai eruption in January 2022 injected large amounts of water vapour into the atmosphere. Here, the authors show that this can cause additional warming over the next years, which increases the likelihood of exceeding 1.5 °C warming over a short time period.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Shades of green growth scepticism among climate policy researchers - Nature Sustainability
2023-08-07 in NatureThe idea that technology and green growth strategies can sufficiently decouple economic growth from associated environmental impacts has both supporters and opposers. This study presents the views of climate policy researchers from 73 countries on different growth models, including green growth, agrowth and degrowth.
Aerosols must be included in climate risk assessments
2023-08-06 (or before) in NatureEstimates of impending risk ignore a big player in regional change and climate extremes. Estimates of impending risk ignore a big player in regional change and climate extremes.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation - Nature Climate Change
2023-07-28 (or before) in NatureCooling has been observed over the past century in the northern Atlantic, and this study presents multiple lines of evidence that suggest it may be a result of a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The decrease in this circulation, particularly after 1970, seems to be unprecedented in the past millennium and melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet may be a contributing factor.
Tagged under: Oceans | Climate Change
Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years - Nature
2023-07-28 (or before) in NatureOceans cover more than two-thirds of our blue planet. The waters move in a global circulation system, driven by subtle density differences and transporting huge amounts of heat. Ocean circulation is thus an active and highly nonlinear player in the global climate game. Increasingly clear evidence implicates ocean circulation in abrupt and dramatic climate shifts, such as sudden temperature changes in Greenland on the order of 5–10 °C and massive surges of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean — events that have occurred repeatedly during the last glacial cycle.
Tagged under: Oceans | Climate Change
Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium - Nature Geoscience
2023-07-28 (or before) in NatureThe Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is currently distinctly weaker than it has been for the last millennium, according to a synthesis of proxy records derived from a range of techniques.
Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation - Nature Communications
2023-07-25 (or before) in NatureThe Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.
Tagged under: Predictions | Collapse | Tipping Points
Deception and self-deception - Nature Human Behaviour
2023-07-24 (or before) in NatureWhy are people so often overconfident? Schwardmann and van der Weele show that people self-deceive into higher confidence if they have the opportunity to persuade others for profit and that higher confidence aides persuasion.
Emissions savings from equitable energy demand reduction - Nature Energy
2023-07-17 (or before) in NatureEmissions impacts of equitable energy demand reduction approaches are not well understood. A new study finds that capping energy use among top-quintile consumers in Europe achieves considerable emissions reductions.
Global projections of flash drought show increased risk in a warming climate - Communications Earth & Environment
2023-07-16 (or before) in NatureFlash droughts are projected to become more frequent under all global warming scenarios, with flash drought risk over croplands increasing particularly sharply over Europe and the US, according to analyses of climate model simulations.
Tagged under: Drought
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 - Communications Earth & Environment
2023-07-11 (or before) in NatureOver the past four decades, Arctic Amplification - the ratio of Arctic to global warming - has been much stronger than thought, and is probably underestimated in climate models, suggest analyses of observations and the CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations.
Tagged under: Arctic
Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022 - Nature Medicine
2023-07-11 (or before) in NatureThis ecological analysis using the Eurostat database estimated that summer 2022, the hottest summer on record, was associated with over 61,000 heat-related deaths across 35 countries in Europe, with the highest mortality rates in countries near the Mediterranean Sea.
Generational differences in climate-related beliefs, risk perceptions and emotions in the UK - Communications Earth & Environment
2023-07-06 (or before) in NatureYounger people in the UK are more likely than older individuals to feel emotional engagement with climate change-related risks, however, there is little difference in the belief in anthropogenic climate change, according to analyses of nationally representative survey results.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Built structures influence patterns of energy demand and CO2 emissions across countries - Nature Communications
2023-07-05 (or before) in NatureExtent and spatial patterns of settlements and infrastructures strongly affect resource demand of national economies worldwide. Their influence on final energy and CO2 emissions is almost as large as that of gross domestic product (GDP).
Tagged under: Economic Growth
An earth system model shows self-sustained thawing of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020 - Scientific Reports
2023-07-03 (or before) in NatureThe risk of points-of-no-return, which, once surpassed lock the world into new dynamics, have been discussed for decades. Recently, there have been warnings that some of these tipping points are coming closer and are too dangerous to be disregarded. In this paper we report that in the ESCIMO climate model the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming. In ESCIMO we observe self-sustained thawing of the permafrost for hundreds of years, even if global society stops all emissions of man-made GHGs immediately. We encourage other model builders to explore our discovery in their (bigger) models, and report on their...
Tagged under: Oceans | Climate Change | Arctic | Albedo | Ice Melting | Tipping Points
Global warming intensifies rainfall in mountainous regions
2023-06-29 (or before) in NatureAs the climate warms, the amount of atmospheric water vapour increases and the type of precipitation shifts towards more rain and less snow. These two mechanisms amplify the intensity of rainfall extremes in high-elevation regions by 15% per degree Celsius of warming, approximately double the previously reported rate. An increase in precipitation combined with a reduction in the fraction falling as snow is predicted to result in more-extreme rainfall in high-elevation regions.
Tagged under: Predictions
Start-ups are adding antacids to the ocean to slow global warming. Will it work?
2023-06-29 (or before) in NatureA New York experiment is part of a commercial race to develop ocean-based technologies to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. A New York experiment is part of a commercial race to develop ocean-based technologies to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Tagged under: Oceans
Climate anxiety is about more than just personal risks - Nature Climate Change
2023-06-29 (or before) in NatureTagged under: Climate Change | Climate Anxiety and Grief
Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers - Nature Sustainability
2023-06-22 (or before) in NatureCurrent models, based on incremental changes in a single stress, have limited ability to anticipate abrupt ecosystem changes due to climate and human activities. Experiments on four models simulating ecosystems with a range of anthropogenic interactions show how much earlier abrupt change can happen.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Collapse | Sustainability
My journey out of fossil fuel-funded research - Nature Geoscience
2023-06-15 (or before) in NatureResearch on the energy transition needs to involve all communities and requires breaking the paradigm of traditional industry-funded research, argues Jef Caers from his personal story.
Reconciling theory with the reality of African heatwaves
2023-06-15 (or before) in NatureExtreme weather damage databases report no significant heatwave impacts in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900, yet the region has experienced a number of heatwaves and will be affected disproportionately by them under climate change. Addressing this reporting discrepancy is crucial to assess the impacts of future extreme heat there.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Africa | Climate Change Impacts | Heatwaves
Recent reduced abyssal overturning and ventilation in the Australian Antarctic Basin - Nature Climate Change
2023-06-13 (or before) in NatureAntarctic bottom water (AABW), a key component of ocean circulation, provides oxygen to the deep ocean. This work shows that AABW transport reduced over the past decades in the Australian Antarctic Basin, weakening the abyssal overturning circulation and decreasing deep ocean oxygen.
Tagged under: Oceans | Climate Change | Antarctic
Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario - Nature Communications
2023-06-06 (or before) in NatureA dominant influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in all months. By scaling climate models’ sea ice response to best match observed trends, an ice-free Arctic in September is projected under all scenarios.
Tagged under: Arctic
Accelerating flash droughts induced by the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity - Nature Communications
2023-06-02 (or before) in NatureThe occurrence of flash droughts has attracted widespread attention due to their rapid onset. Here, the authors find that the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity further accelerates the rapid onset of flash droughts.
Tagged under: Drought
Aerosol demasking enhances climate warming over South Asia - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
2023-06-01 (or before) in NatureAnthropogenic aerosols mask the climate warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the absence of observational constraints, large uncertainties plague the estimates of this masking effect. Here we used the abrupt reduction in anthropogenic emissions observed during the COVID-19 societal slow-down to characterize the aerosol masking effect over South Asia. During this period, the aerosol loading decreased substantially and our observations reveal that the magnitude of this aerosol demasking corresponds to nearly three-fourths of the CO2-induced radiative forcing over South Asia. Concurrent measurements over the northern India...
Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Oceans
Safe and just Earth system boundaries - Nature
2023-06-01 (or before) in NatureWe find that justice considerations constrain the integrated Earth system boundaries more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading, and our assessment provides a foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people.
Tagged under: Climate Justice
Rapidly increasing likelihood of exceeding 50 °C in parts of the Mediterranean and the Middle East due to human influence - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
2023-05-30 (or before) in NatureAs the world warms, extremely hot days are becoming more frequent and intense, reaching unprecedented temperatures associated with excess mortality. Here, we assess how anthropogenic forcings affect the likelihood of maximum daily temperatures above 50 °C at 12 selected locations around the Mediterranean and the Middle East. We adopt a risk-based attribution methodology that utilises climate model simulations with and without human influence to estimate the probability of extremes. We find that at all locations, temperatures above 50 °C would have been extremely rare or impossible in the pre-industrial worl...
Tagged under: Climate Change | Middle East
Against climate hypocrisy: why the IPCC needs its own net-zero target
2023-05-25 (or before) in NatureA robust strategy to slash the IPCC’s carbon emissions would be a testbed for international climate policy — and serve as an example of effective action. A robust strategy to slash the IPCC’s carbon emissions would be a testbed for international climate policy — and serve as an example of effective action.
When will global warming actually hit the landmark 1.5 ºC limit?
2023-05-23 (or before) in NatureThe planet is on track to reach the 1.5 ºC average by the 2030s — although a new report suggests a single year will probably cross the line much sooner. The planet is on track to reach the 1.5 ºC average by the 2030s — although a new report suggests a single year will probably cross the line much sooner.
Quantifying the human cost of global warming - Nature Sustainability
2023-05-23 (or before) in NatureAs an alternative to monetary estimates, this study expresses the costs of climate change in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’, which reflects the historically highly conserved distribution of human population density relative to mean annual temperature.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Sustainability
Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions - Nature Communications
2023-05-22 (or before) in NatureThis study shows that the occurrence frequency of global precipitation whiplash is projected to be ~2.6 times higher by the end of the 21st century compared to 1979–2019, with increasingly rapid and intense transitions between the two extremes.
Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2023-05-18 (or before) in NatureAlthough model projections indicate increased El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the future, contemporary impacts of anthropogenic forcing on ENSO variability have been difficult to ascertain. This Perspective discusses these contemporary effects, outlining that an increase in post-1960 ENSO variability is likely related to greenhouse gas forcing.
Tagged under: El Niño
Political strategies for climate and environmental solutions - Nature Sustainability
2023-05-16 (or before) in NatureMany of the barriers to progress in addressing environmental problems, such as climate change, are political. This Review illustrates how insight into politics can help policymakers craft strategies to address the ambition gap, the implementation gap and the international action gap.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Sustainability
The ocean is hotter than ever: what happens next?
2023-05-10 (or before) in NatureRecord temperature combined with an anticipated El Niño could devastate marine life and increase the chances of extreme weather. Record temperature combined with an anticipated El Niño could devastate marine life and increase the chances of extreme weather.
Tagged under: Oceans | El Niño
Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being - Nature Climate Change
2023-05-08 (or before) in NatureEvaluation of mitigation actions often focuses on cost and overlooks the direct effects on well-being. This work shows demand-side measures have large mitigation potential and beneficial effects on well-being outcomes.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Climate Change Mitigation
Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates - Nature Climate Change
2023-05-07 (or before) in NatureThe signal to noise ratio of temperature change can be used to determine exposure to unusual, unfamiliar and unknown climates. For large groups of the world’s population, mitigation can delay the onset of unfamiliar or unknown climates by several decades.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Climate Change Mitigation
Natural gas savings in Germany during the 2022 energy crisis - Nature Energy
2023-05-05 (or before) in NatureCurbed natural gas supply from Russia to Europe has exacerbated an energy crisis on the continent. Here the authors employ a multiple regression model to estimate the response of small consumers, industry and power stations to this crisis.
Tagged under: Russia
Increased heat risk in wet climate induced by urban humid heat - Nature
2023-04-26 in NatureAn analysis of data from urban and rural areas shows that in wet climates the net effect of temperature and humidity in urban areas is an increase in heat stress.
Carbon dioxide removal is not a current climate solution — we need to change the narrative
2023-04-26 (or before) in NatureDrastically reduce emissions first, or carbon dioxide removal will be next to useless. Drastically reduce emissions first, or carbon dioxide removal will be next to useless.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Suburbs are a climate disaster, but they can be redeemed
2023-04-25 (or before) in NatureWith a radical approach to planning, suburbs in the United States can be made affordable, liveable and climate friendly. With a radical approach to planning, suburbs in the United States can be made affordable, liveable and climate friendly.
The effect of sustainable mobility transition policies on cumulative urban transport emissions and energy demand - Nature Communications
2023-04-25 (or before) in NatureA rapid and large-scale reduction in car use, within a well-designed policy mix, is necessary to achieve short-term emission targets and reduce energy demand. Here, the authors introduce the Urban Transport Policy Model and demonstrate, using London as a case study, that current policies will not meet climate targets.
Death threats, trolling and sexist abuse: climate scientists report online attacks
2023-04-20 (or before) in NatureSurvey highlights experiences of dozens of climate researchers who have endured online harassment related to their work. Survey highlights experiences of dozens of climate researchers who have endured online harassment related to their work.
Unprecedented 21st century heat across the Pacific Northwest of North America - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
2023-04-18 (or before) in NatureExtreme summer temperatures are increasingly common across the Northern Hemisphere and inflict severe socioeconomic and biological consequences. In summer 2021, the Pacific Northwest region of North America (PNW) experienced a 2-week-long extreme heatwave, which contributed to record-breaking summer temperatures. Here, we use tree-ring records to show that summer temperatures in 2021, as well as the rate of summertime warming during the last several decades, are unprecedented within the context of the last millennium for the PNW. In the absence of committed efforts to curtail anthropogenic emissions below intermediate levels (SS...
Tagged under: Climate Change | Climate Change Impacts
Urban water crises driven by elites’ unsustainable consumption - Nature Sustainability
2023-04-14 (or before) in NatureUrban water crises, due to droughts and unsustainable water consumption, are becoming increasingly recurrent in metropolitan cities. This study shows the role of social inequalities in such crises, revealing the implications of water overconsumption by privileged social groups and individuals.
Tagged under: Drought | Sustainability
Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming - Scientific Reports
2023-04-14 (or before) in NatureThe intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such events occur in a warmer world is however less well established, and the combined effect of changes in frequency and intensity on the total amount of rain falling as extreme precipitation is much less explored, in spite of potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations and climate model simulations to document strong increases in the frequencies of extreme precipitation events occurring on decadal timescales. Based on observations we find that the total precipitation from these intense events almo...
Tagged under: Climate Change | Climate Change Impacts
Protecting Brazilian Amazon Indigenous territories reduces atmospheric particulates and avoids associated health impacts and costs - Communications Earth & Environment
2023-04-07 (or before) in NatureMore than 15 million cases of respiratory and cardiovascular infections could be prevented, saving $2 billion USD each year in human health costs by protecting indigenous lands in the Brazilian Amazon, suggest estimates of PM2.5 health impacts between 2010 and 2019.
Tagged under: Amazon Rainforest | Brazil | Health
Lung adenocarcinoma promotion by air pollutants - Nature
2023-04-07 (or before) in NatureCombination of epidemiology, preclinical models and ultradeep DNA profiling of clinical cohorts unpicks the inflammatory mechanism by which air pollution promotes lung cancer
Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions - Nature Communications
2023-04-05 (or before) in NatureThe linkage between temperature change and extinction rates in the fossil record is well-known qualitatively but little explored quantitatively. Here the authors investigate the relationship of marine animal extinctions with rate and magnitude of temperature change across the last 450 million years, and identify thresholds in climate change linked to mass extinctions.
Tagged under: Climate Change
A fly in the ozone and climate ointment - Nature Geoscience
2023-04-05 (or before) in NatureThe Montreal Protocol has successfully guided the world’s transition from chlorofluorcarbons that deplete ozone to hydrofluorocarbons that pose no direct threat to the ozone layer. A study suggests that a recent rise in atmospheric chlorofluorcarbons is linked to the inadvertent release of these gases during the production of hydrofluorocarbons.
Carbon capture nets 2 billion tonnes of CO2 each year — but it’s not enough
2023-04-05 (or before) in NatureAs well as cutting emissions, governments need to ramp up investment in carbon dioxide removal technologies to hit climate goals, researchers warn. As well as cutting emissions, governments need to ramp up investment in carbon dioxide removal technologies to hit climate goals, researchers warn.
‘This shouldn’t be happening’: levels of banned CFCs rising
2023-04-04 (or before) in NatureResearchers have detected increased emissions for five ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons. Researchers have detected increased emissions for five ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons.
The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century - Communications Earth & Environment
2023-04-03 (or before) in NatureThe Antarctic Ice Sheet’s sea-level contribution in a high-emissions scenario is indistinguishable from that in a low-emissions scenario for the next century, but its long-term contribution depends on warming this century, according to ice sheet simulations and an emulator-based analysis.
Tagged under: Antarctic | Sea Level
Quantifying the impacts of defaunation on natural forest regeneration in a global meta-analysis - Nature Communications
2023-04-02 (or before) in NatureThe defaunation of vertebrates may disrupt forest functioning through the loss of plant-animal interactions, but impacts on forests remain unquantified. Here the authors show that seed dispersal is a key interaction and defaunation of primates and birds negatively impacts forest regeneration.
Tagged under: Trees
National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850 - Scientific Data
2023-03-30 (or before) in NatureAnthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have made significant contributions to global warming since the pre-industrial period and are therefore targeted in international climate policy. There is substantial interest in tracking and apportioning national contributions to climate change and informing equitable commitments to decarbonisation. Here, we introduce a new dataset of national contributions to global warming caused by historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide during the years 1851–2021, which are consistent with the latest findings of the IPCC. ...
Tagged under: IPCC | Climate Change | Methane | Decarbonisation
Reduced CO2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation - Nature Climate Change
2023-03-29 (or before) in NatureOcean carbon uptake could be affected by changes in circulation. This modelling study shows that meridional overturning circulation slowdown increases deep-ocean storage via the biological pump but decreases carbon uptake via the solubility pump, with a net reduction in oceanic uptake of CO2.
Tagged under: Oceans | Climate Change
Abyssal ocean overturning slowdown and warming driven by Antarctic meltwater - Nature
2023-03-29 (or before) in NatureSimulations show that projected increases in Antarctic meltwater will slow down the abyssal ocean overturning circulation over the coming decades and lead to warming and ageing of the ocean abyss.
Tagged under: Oceans | Antarctic
Trophic rewilding can expand natural climate solutions
2023-03-28 (or before) in NatureNatural climate solutions are being advanced to arrest climate warming by protecting and enhancing carbon capture and storage in plants, soils and sediments in ecosystems. These solutions are viewed as having the ancillary benefit of protecting habitats and landscapes to conserve animal species diversity. However, this reasoning undervalues the role animals play in controlling the carbon cycle. We present scientific evidence showing that protecting and restoring wild animals and their functional roles can enhance natural carbon capture and storage. We call for new thinking that includes the restoration and conservation of wild a...
Tagged under: Rewilding
Civil disobedience by scientists helps press for urgent climate action - Nature Climate Change
2023-03-21 (or before) in NatureTime is short to secure a liveable and sustainable future; yet, inaction from governments, industry and civil society is setting the course for 3.2 °C of warming, with all the cascading and catastrophic consequences that this implies. In this context, when does civil disobedience by scientists become justified?
Tagged under: Climate Change
Radical interventions for climate-impacted systems - Nature Climate Change
2023-03-16 (or before) in NatureIn this Perspective, the authors argue that radical, rather than conventional, interventions are necessary to address climate change. They discuss the definitions and interpretations of the term ‘radical’, and present a typology of radical intervention that addresses the root drivers of climate change.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change - Scientific Reports
2023-03-13 (or before) in NatureClimate change and human activity are dooming species at an unprecedented rate via a plethora of direct and indirect, often synergic, mechanisms. Among these, primary extinctions driven by environmental change could be just the tip of an enormous extinction iceberg. As our understanding of the importance of ecological interactions in shaping ecosystem identity advances, it is becoming clearer how the disappearance of consumers following the depletion of their resources — a process known as ‘co-extinction’ — is more likely the major driver of biodiversity loss. Although the general relevance of co-extincti...
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Climate Change | Collapse
Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception - Nature
2023-03-12 (or before) in NatureA critical functional relationship between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide concentration is proposed and tested with simulations; it accounts for the beginning of the past eight glacial cycles and predicts that the next one is unusually far off, even without the effect of anthropogenic emissions.
Tagged under: Predictions
Likely accelerated weakening of Atlantic overturning circulation emerges in optimal salinity fingerprint - Nature Communications
2023-03-09 (or before) in NatureAn optimal salinity fingerprint is proposed to detect the long-term Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) response to anthropogenic forcing. A real-word application suggests a likely accelerated weakening of the AMOC in recent decades.
Future warming from global food consumption - Nature Climate Change
2023-03-07 (or before) in NatureAlthough the role of the human diet in climate change has been widely acknowledged, current practices fail to capture its realistic effect on warming. In this Analysis, Ivanovich et al. develop a global food consumption emission inventory and estimate the associated future climate impact using a reduced-complexity climate model.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Global greenhouse gas emissions from animal-based foods are twice those of plant-based foods - Nature Food
2023-03-07 (or before) in NatureThe quantification of greenhouse gas emissions related to food production and consumption is still largely hindered by the availability of spatial data consistent across sectors. This study provides a detailed account of emissions from land-use change, farmland, livestock and activities beyond the farm gate associated with plant- and animal-based foods/diets—culminating in local-, country- and global-level emissions from each major agricultural commodity.
Tagged under: Farming | Greenhouse Gases | Food Production and Consumption
Tropical deforestation causes large reductions in observed precipitation - Nature
2023-03-01 (or before) in NatureA pan-tropical analysis using satellite, station-based and reanalysis datasets shows that deforestation causes reduced precipitation, and demonstrates that the effect increases with spatial scale.
Tagged under: Deforestation
Diagnosing destabilization risk in global land carbon sinks - Nature
2023-02-26 (or before) in NatureIncreasing variability of net biome production over recent decades may be due to climate change and points to destabilization of the carbon–climate system.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Antibiotic use in farming set to soar despite drug-resistance fears
2023-02-12 (or before) in NatureAnalysis finds antimicrobial drug use in agriculture is much higher than reported. Analysis finds antimicrobial drug use in agriculture is much higher than reported.
Tagged under: Farming
Direct seawater electrolysis by adjusting the local reaction environment of a catalyst - Nature Energy
2023-02-05 (or before) in NatureDirect seawater electrolysis is an approach to produce hydrogen from an abundant water source, but current catalysts face performance and durability challenges. Here Guo et al. introduce a hard Lewis acid layer on the catalyst surface that generates local alkalinity, facilitating water splitting and minimizing degradation.
Tagged under: Hydrogen
Alpine snowfall model shows unprecedented decline
2023-02-01 (or before) in NatureBy studying the growth rings of junipers, an Italian team has reconstructed the evolution of the Alpine snowpack over six centuries. By studying the growth rings of junipers, an Italian team has reconstructed the evolution of the Alpine snowpack over six centuries.
Teleconnections among tipping elements in the Earth system - Nature Climate Change
2023-01-26 (or before) in NatureTeleconnections between tipping elements in the Earth system are unclear. Here the authors use a climate network approach to link the Amazon Rainforest Area and the Tibetan Plateau, and show that current snow cover loss on the Tibetan Plateau is an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point.
Tagged under: Rainforests | Amazon Rainforest | Climate Change | Tipping Points
Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model - Nature Climate Change
2023-01-26 (or before) in NatureTemporarily exceeding temperature targets could increase risk of crossing tipping-element thresholds. This study considers a range of overshoot scenarios in a stylized network model and shows that overshoots increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with remaining within targets.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Tipping Points
Rapid worldwide depletion of predatory fish communities - Nature
2023-01-22 (or before) in NatureSerious concerns have been raised about the ecological effects of industrialized fishing1,2,3, spurring a United Nations resolution on restoring fisheries and marine ecosystems to healthy levels4. However, a prerequisite for restoration is a general understanding of the composition and abundance of unexploited fish communities, relative to contemporary ones. We constructed trajectories of community biomass and composition of large predatory fishes in four continental shelf and nine oceanic systems, using all available data from the beginning of exploitation. Industrialized fisheries typically reduced community biomass by 80% wit...
Tagged under: Oceans | Fish | Health
The other greenhouse effect - Nature Geoscience
2023-01-17 (or before) in NatureTagged under: Greenhouse Gases
Don’t wait for COP: the end of the fossil-fuel age must start now
2023-01-13 (or before) in NatureUN climate conferences are too beholden to oil and gas interests. Like-minded nations must come together to keep climate hopes alive. UN climate conferences are too beholden to oil and gas interests. Like-minded nations must come together to keep climate hopes alive.
What the fusion breakthrough in the US means for Europe
2023-01-10 (or before) in NatureAn American lab has reached "ignition” with a technology that Europe has neglected. Italian fusion experts discuss whether it is time for a different strategy. An American lab has reached "ignition” with a technology that Europe has neglected. Italian fusion experts discuss whether it is time for a different strategy.
Tagged under: Nuclear Power | Nuclear Fusion
Limits to economic growth - Nature Physics
2022-12-25 (or before) in NatureAcross the world, decisions on investment and policy are made under the assumption of continuous economic expansion. Fundamental physical limits may soon put an end to this phase of development, as foreshadowed by the 1972 report The Limits to Growth.
Tagged under: Economic Growth
Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimize risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds - Nature Climate Change
2022-12-22 in NatureConsidering cryosphere and warming uncertainties together implies drastically increased risk of threshold crossing in the cryosphere, even under lower-emission pathways, and underscores the need to halve emissions by 2030 in line with the 1.5 °C limit of the Paris Agreement.
Degrowth can work — here’s how science can help
2022-12-15 (or before) in NatureWealthy countries can create prosperity while using less materials and energy if they abandon economic growth as an objective. Wealthy countries can create prosperity while using less materials and energy if they abandon economic growth as an objective.
Tagged under: Degrowth | Economic Growth
Tropical methane emissions explain large fraction of recent changes in global atmospheric methane growth rate - Nature Communications
2022-12-07 (or before) in NatureMethane is a powerful greenhouse gas with emissions that are challenging to constrain. Here the authors use 10 years of satellite observations and show tropical terrestrial emissions account for 80% of observed global methane increases.
Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases | Methane
Climate polarization is increasing on Twitter - Nature Climate Change
2022-11-30 (or before) in NatureAnalysis of tweets relating to the Conference of the Parties (COP) climate summits reveals greater polarization during COP26 than during previous summits. This increase in polarization is associated with growing right-wing engagement and emerged following the global climate strikes in 2019. Surprisingly, one topic unites pro-climate and climate-sceptic groups — ‘political hypocrisy’ — accusations of which have increased since 2019.
Tagged under: COP26 | Climate Change
Growing polarization around climate change on social media - Nature Climate Change
2022-11-26 (or before) in NaturePolarization and the resulting political deadlock have become key barriers to more ambitious climate action. Using Twitter data between Conferences of the Parties, this research identifies a trend of increasing polarization driven by growing right-wing activity alongside accusations of political hypocrisy.
Tagged under: Climate Change
A toolkit for understanding and addressing climate scepticism - Nature Human Behaviour
2022-11-22 (or before) in NatureHornsey and Lewandowsky examine psychological and structural reasons for climate change scepticism and describe strategies for reducing the destructive influence of such scepticism.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Favourability towards natural gas relates to funding source of university energy centres - Nature Climate Change
2022-11-11 (or before) in NatureUniversity-based energy centres play an important role in climate discourse but many are funded by fossil fuel businesses. This study shows that fossil-fuel-funded centres express more positive sentiment towards natural gas, compared to renewable energy, than those not funded by the fossil industry.
Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Climate Change
Impacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality - Nature Sustainability
2022-11-11 (or before) in NatureThe environmental implications of meeting the needs of the poorest are under debate. By showing substantial inequalities in natural resource claims and responsibility for ecological damage globally, this study estimates and discusses the impacts of achieving just access on the Earth system.
Tagged under: Sustainability
Toxic chemical named as likely cause of mass North East sea life deaths
2022-11-05 (or before) in NatureMass marine life deaths along the North East coast are likely to have been caused by a toxic chemical, a new study has claimed.
Past and future ocean warming - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2022-10-18 (or before) in NatureGreenhouse gas forcing has increased ocean heat content, with large impacts on the Earth system. This Review outlines observed and projected global and regional changes, revealing an observed 0–2,000 m global increase of 351.4 ± 59.8 ZJ from 1958 to 2019, and a projected increase of 1,874 [1,637–2,109] ZJ by 2100 under SSP5-8.5.
Tagged under: Oceans | Greenhouse Gases
Rarest rainfall events will see the greatest relative increase in magnitude under future climate change - Communications Earth & Environment
2022-10-10 in NatureThe magnitude of extreme rainfall events is likely to increase in the future to a greater extent for the most extreme events than for the common extremes, according to 25 CMIP6 model predictions.
Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol - Nature
2022-10-10 (or before) in NatureInvestigations of the effect of aerosol emissions from shipping on cloud properties when both visible and invisible ship tracks are considered implies a large negative radiative effect (and associated cooling) from liquid water path adjustments.
Are there limits to economic growth? It’s time to call time on a 50-year argument
2022-10-06 (or before) in NatureResearchers must try to resolve a dispute on the best way to use and care for Earth’s resources. Researchers must try to resolve a dispute on the best way to use and care for Earth’s resources.
Tagged under: Economic Growth
Mapping cumulative pressures on the grazing lands of northern Fennoscandia - Scientific Reports
2022-10-03 (or before) in NatureTraditional grazing areas in Europe have declined substantially over the last century. Specifically, in northern Fennoscandia, the grazing land is disturbed by cumulative land-use pressures. Here we analysed the configuration of the grazing land for reindeer and sheep in northern Fennoscandia in relation to the concurrent land-use pressures from tourism, road and railway networks, forestry, industrial and wind energy facilities, together with predator presence and climate change. Our results show that 85% of the region is affected by at least one land-use pressure and 60% is affected by multiple land-use pressures, co-occurring ...
Tagged under: Land Use | Climate Change | Trees | Wind Power
Slow-down in summer warming over Greenland in the past decade linked to central Pacific El Niño - Communications Earth & Environment
2022-10-03 (or before) in NatureA slow-down in warming and ice loss in Greenland over the past decade is linked to a shift in El Niño events towards the central Pacific through an atmospheric remote forcing, according to analyses of observations and simulations with an atmospheric circulation model.
A planetary boundary for green water - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2022-10-03 (or before) in NatureThe planetary boundaries framework outlines a safe operating space for humanity according to key Earth system dynamics. This Perspective proposes the addition of a green water planetary boundary based on root-zone soil moisture and demonstrates that widespread green water modifications now present increasing risks to Earth system resilience.
Global carbon inequality over 1990–2019 - Nature Sustainability
2022-10-01 (or before) in NatureUnderstanding the connection between economic inequality and climate change requires rich and reliable data. This study combines recently assembled data on income and wealth inequality with environmental data to shed light on the uneven individual contributions to climate change across the world.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Sustainability
Rapid retreat of Thwaites Glacier in the pre-satellite era - Nature Geoscience
2022-09-05 in NatureThe Thwaites Glacier grounding zone has experienced sustained pulses of rapid retreat over the past two centuries, according to sea floor observations obtained by an autonomous underwater vehicle.
Determining the credibility of commitments in international climate policy - Nature Climate Change
2022-09-02 (or before) in NatureThe success of international climate cooperation relies on whether national commitments are believable under the Paris Agreement. Based on the survey with experienced climate policy professionals, the authors explore the determinants of credibility of national commitments.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Inequality can double the energy required to secure universal decent living - Nature Communications
2022-08-27 (or before) in NatureIn exploring the energy required to provide decent living for all, the authors find the costs of inequality to be far greater than that of population growth. Nonetheless, population growth remains important for other reasons.
Drivers of peak warming in a consumption-maximizing world - Nature Climate Change
2022-08-26 (or before) in NatureAn analysis of climate change mitigation policies in an idealized integrated assessment framework highlights the importance of economic growth, and investment in technologies such as large-scale carbon dioxide removal, to limit peak warming.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Economic Growth | Climate Change Mitigation
Americans experience a false social reality by underestimating popular climate policy support by nearly half - Nature Communications
2022-08-24 (or before) in NatureA new study finds that Americans underestimate how many are concerned about climate change as well as support for major climate policies by nearly half, with climate policy supporters significantly outnumbering non-supporters.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Development of vanadium-based polyanion positive electrode active materials for high-voltage sodium-based batteries - Nature Communications
2022-08-14 (or before) in NatureThe development of high-capacity and high-voltage electrode materials can boost the performance of sodium-based batteries. Here, the authors report the synthesis of a polyanion positive electrode active material that enables high-capacity and high-voltage sodium battery performance.
Tagged under: Batteries
Sustainable agrifood systems for a post-growth world - Nature Sustainability
2022-08-05 (or before) in NatureSustainable agrifood systems are critical to redefining the interactions of humanity and nature in the twenty-first century. This Perspective presents an agenda and examples for the comprehensive redesign of agrifood systems according to principles of sufficiency, regeneration, distribution, commons and care.
Tagged under: Sustainability
Definitions and implications of climate-neutral aviation - Nature Climate Change
2022-07-31 (or before) in NatureNon-CO2 effects must be addressed for climate-neutral aviation but are currently ignored in international climate policies. The authors provide a framework with different definitions of climate neutrality, then show how technological and demand-side mitigation efforts can help to achieve these targets.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Climate Change Mitigation
Dynamics of collective action to conserve a large common-pool resource - Scientific Reports
2022-07-10 (or before) in NatureA pressing challenge for coming decades is sustainable and just management of large-scale common-pool resources including the atmosphere, biodiversity and public services. This poses a difficult collective action problem because such resources may not show signs that usage restraint is needed until tragedy is almost inevitable. To solve this problem, a sufficient level of cooperation with a pro-conservation behavioural norm must be achieved, within the prevailing sociopolitical environment, in time for the action taken to be effective. Here we investigate the transient dynamics of behavioural change in an agent-based model on st...
Overwintering fires in boreal forests - Nature
2022-07-05 (or before) in NatureLarge forest fires in Alaska and the Northwest Territories can ‘overwinter’ and then reignite in the following fire season, contributing up to one-third of the burned area in individual years.
Tagged under: Forest Fires | Alaska | Trees
Deglacial bottom water warming intensified Arctic methane seepage in the NW Barents Sea - Communications Earth & Environment
2022-06-16 (or before) in NaturePhases of high bottom water temperature in the northwestern Barents Sea caused repeated destabilization of methane gas hydrates since the last glacial, according to a foraminifera Mg/Ca bottom water temperature record and hydrate stability modelling
Tagged under: Arctic | Methane
Exceptional warming over the Barents area - Scientific Reports
2022-06-15 (or before) in NatureIn recent decades, surface air temperature (SAT) data from Global reanalyses points to maximum warming over the northern Barents area. However, a scarcity of observations hampers the confidence of reanalyses in this Arctic hotspot region. Here, we study the warming over the past 20–40 years based on new available SAT observations and a quality controlled comprehensive SAT dataset from the northern archipelagos in the Barents Sea. We identify a statistically significant record-high annual warming of up to 2.7 °C per decade, with a maximum in autumn of up to 4.0 °C per decade. Our results a...
Tagged under: Arctic
Policy: Climate advisers must maintain integrity - Nature
2022-05-26 (or before) in NatureAs global negotiations fail on emissions reductions, scientific advisers need to resist pressure to fit the facts to the failure, warns Oliver Geden.
Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis - Scientific Reports
2022-05-15 (or before) in NatureIn this paper we afford a quantitative analysis of the sustainability of current world population growth in relation to the parallel deforestation process adopting a statistical point of view. We consider a simplified model based on a stochastic growth process driven by a continuous time random walk, which depicts the technological evolution of human kind, in conjunction with a deterministic generalised logistic model for humans-forest interaction and we evaluate the probability of avoiding the self-destruction of our civilisation. Based on the current resource consumption rates and best estimate of technological rate growth our...
Tagged under: Deforestation | Collapse | Trees | Sustainability
Crop harvests for direct food use insufficient to meet the UN’s food security goal - Nature Food
2022-05-15 (or before) in NatureElimination of hunger will require shifts in crop usage by 2030. Calories will need to be obtained from crops currently harvested for purposes other than direct food consumption. Sub-Saharan Africa, however, will likely fall short even if all harvested calories are used directly as food.
Tagged under: Africa
The carbon opportunity cost of animal-sourced food production on land - Nature Sustainability
2022-05-15 (or before) in NatureShifting global food production to plant-based diets by 2050 can sequester 99–163% of the CO2 emissions budget towards limiting climate warming to 1.5 °C.
Tagged under: Food Production and Consumption | Sustainability
AnthroShift in a warming world - npj Climate Action
2022-05-09 in NatureThirty years after the UN Conference on Environment and Development created the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, efforts to respond to the issue continue to be insufficient to meet the challenges of the climate crisis. This perspective builds on the experience of society’s responses to the COVID-19 pandemic to understand what is needed to get to meaningful climate action. It applies the framework of the AnthroShift to assess how transformational social change is likely to emerge. The paper concludes by determining that the most plausible pathway to an effective social response to the climate crisis would be drive...
Local food crop production can fulfil demand for less than one-third of the population - Nature Food
2022-05-09 (or before) in NatureA ‘foodshed’ model indicates the minimum distance between crop production and consumption globally. Results show that most of the world’s population depends on trade to feed themselves, even under different levels of yield gap closure and food loss reduction.
Tagged under: Food Production and Consumption
Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem
2022-05-04 in NatureThe sixth and latest IPCC assessment weights climate models according to how well they reproduce other evidence. Now the rest of the community should do the same. The sixth and latest IPCC assessment weights climate models according to how well they reproduce other evidence. Now the rest of the community should do the same.
Increasing ocean stratification over the past half-century - Nature Climate Change
2022-05-02 (or before) in NatureSeawater properties—temperature, salinity and density—cause stratification of the water column, limiting vertical exchange. Considering down to 2,000 m, ocean stratification is shown to have increased ~5.3% since 1960, with ~71% of the change occurring in the upper 200 m primarily from warming.
Tagged under: Oceans | Climate Change
The role of tropical volcanic eruptions in exacerbating Indian droughts - Scientific Reports
2022-05-02 (or before) in NatureThe Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is vital for the livelihood of millions of people in the Indian region; droughts caused by monsoon failures often resulted in famines. Large volcanic eruptions have been linked with reductions in ISMR, but the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. Here, using 145-year (1871–2016) records of volcanic eruptions and ISMR, we show that ISMR deficits prevail for two years after moderate and large (VEI > 3) tropical volcanic eruptions; this is not the case for extra-tropical eruptions. Moreover, tropical volcanic eruptions strengthen El Niño and weaken La Ni&...
Tagged under: Solar Energy | Extreme Rainfall | Drought | Famine | El Niño
A global reptile assessment highlights shared conservation needs of tetrapods - Nature
2022-04-29 (or before) in NatureAn extinction-risk assessment of reptiles shows that at least 21.1% of species are threatened by factors such as agriculture, logging, urban development and invasive species, and that efforts to protect birds, mammals and amphibians probably also benefit many reptiles.
Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk - Nature
2022-04-29 (or before) in NatureAt least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, climate and land use change will produce novel opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically-isolated species of wildlife3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here, we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographic range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under clim...
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Africa | Wildlife
Alpine permafrost could account for a quarter of thawed carbon based on Plio-Pleistocene paleoclimate analogue - Nature Communications
2022-03-23 (or before) in NatureThe stability of permafrost carbon is poorly understood. Here the authors use Plio-Pleistocene clumped isotope reconstructions from the Tibetan Plateau and climate simulation to determine that ~85 petagrams of alpine carbon is vulnerable to thawing.
Monitoring global carbon emissions in 2021 - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2022-03-22 (or before) in NatureFollowing record-level declines in 2020, near-real-time data indicate that global CO2 emissions rebounded by 4.8% in 2021, reaching 34.9 GtCO2. These 2021 emissions consumed 8.7% of the remaining carbon budget for limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C, which if current trajectories continue, might be used up in 9.5 years at 67% likelihood.
Tagged under: Global Warming
Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity - Nature Communications
2022-03-19 (or before) in NatureRenewable energy production is necessary to mitigate climate change, however, generating the required technologies and infrastructure will demand huge production increases of many metals. Here, the authors map mining areas and assess spatial coincidence with biodiversity conservation sites, and show that new mining threats to biodiversity may surpass those averted by climate change mitigation.
Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Climate Change | Climate Change Mitigation
Observed poleward freshwater transport since 1970 - Nature
2022-03-17 (or before) in NatureA study uses a temperature-percentile water mass framework to analyse warm-to-cold poleward transport of freshwater in the Earth system, and establishes a constraint to help address biases in climate models.
Shift the focus from the super-poor to the super-rich - Nature Climate Change
2022-03-14 (or before) in NatureCarbon mitigation efforts often focus on the world’s poorest people, dealing with topics such as food and energy security, and increased emissions potential from projected population, income and consumption growth. However, more policies are needed that target people at the opposite end of the social ladder — the super-rich.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Climate Change Mitigation
Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate–social system - Nature
2022-02-17 (or before) in NatureA stylized model of the climate–social system could help to understand policy and emissions futures.
Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years - Nature Geoscience
2022-01-29 (or before) in NatureCarbon release rates during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum are difficult to constrain. Comparing relative rates of carbon cycle and climate change at the event’s onset suggests emissions were much slower than anthropogenic emissions.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Stop blaming the climate for disasters - Communications Earth & Environment
2022-01-20 (or before) in NatureDisasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability. We must acknowledge the human-made components of both vulnerability and hazard and emphasize human agency in order to proactively reduce disaster impacts.
Toxic potency-adjusted control of air pollution for solid fuel combustion - Nature Energy
2022-01-19 (or before) in NaturePolicy effort has been put into pollution reduction from both coal-fired electricity and domestic solid fuel burning in China; however, the former has attracted greater research and funding. Li and colleagues now show that the more toxic pollution from residential combustion may be responsible for greater health impacts than coal electricity.
Tagged under: Coal | Electricity | Health
Rapid glacier retreat rates observed in West Antarctica - Nature Geoscience
2022-01-15 (or before) in NatureThe Pope, Smith and Kohler glaciers in West Antarctica have exhibited faster than expected retreat rates in recent years, according to grounding-line observations from satellite radar interferometry.
Tagged under: Antarctic
Top climate scientists are sceptical that nations will rein in global warming
2022-01-02 (or before) in NatureA Nature survey reveals that many authors of the latest IPCC climate-science report are anxious about the future and expect to see catastrophic changes in their lifetimes. A Nature survey reveals that many authors of the latest IPCC climate-science report are anxious about the future and expect to see catastrophic changes in their lifetimes.
Tagged under: IPCC | Climate Change
Sulphide oxidation and carbonate dissolution as a source of CO2 over geological timescales - Nature
2021-12-21 (or before) in NatureSulphide oxidation coupled to carbonate dissolution can provide a transient source of carbon dioxide to Earth’s atmosphere and so balance the Cenozoic increase in carbon dioxide consumption by silicate weathering, reconciling this increase with the need for mass balance in the long-term carbon cycle.
Burning embers: towards more transparent and robust climate-change risk assessments - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
2021-12-21 (or before) in NatureBurning embers figures are used to represent climate-change risk and their transitions. This Review outlines the history and evolution of the burning embers concept, focusing on methodological shifts that increase transparency and allow for a more systematic elicitation process in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.
Tagged under: IPCC | Climate Change
The meaning of net zero and how to get it right - Nature Climate Change
2021-12-20 (or before) in NatureNet-zero emissions is more than a concept of physical climate science. It is implemented in social, political and economic contexts. This Perspective proposes seven attributes that are critical for the practical and effective implementation of net zero.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Net Zero
Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models - Nature Food
2021-12-18 (or before) in NatureClimate change affects agricultural productivity. New systematic global agricultural yield projections of the major crops were conducted using ensembles of the latest generation of crop and climate models. Substantial shifts in global crop productivity due to climate change will occur within the next 20 years—several decades sooner than previous projections—highlighting the need for targeted food system adaptation and risk management in the coming decades.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Climate Change Impacts
Global land change from 1982 to 2016
2021-12-18 (or before) in NatureLand change is a cause and consequence of global environmental change1,2. Changes in land use and land cover considerably alter the Earth’s energy balance and biogeochemical cycles, which contributes to climate change and—in turn—affects land surface properties and the provision of ecosystem services1–4. However, quantification of global land change is lacking. Here we analyse 35 years’ worth of satellite data and provide a comprehensive record of global land-change dynamics during the period 1982–2016. We show that—contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined g...
Tagged under: Deforestation | Land Use | Climate Change | Trees
The global loss of floristic uniqueness - Nature Communications
2021-12-16 (or before) in NatureHumans have altered plant biogeography by introducing species from one region to another, but an analysis of how naturalized plant species affect the uniqueness of regional floras around the world was missing. This study presents an analysis using data from native and naturalized alien floras in 658 regions, finding strong taxonomic and phylogenetic floristic homogenization overall.
Infrastructure killed the electric car - Nature Energy
2021-12-16 (or before) in NatureWhen prices are adjusted for quality, electric vehicles stood their ground to petrol cars in the early twentieth century United States. If the electricity grid had developed twenty years earlier, they might have reached a 68–79% market share and CO2 emissions per car could have declined by 60%, a new study finds.
Tagged under: Electric Cars | Cars | Electricity | Electricity Grid
Thawing Yedoma permafrost is a neglected nitrous oxide source - Nature Communications
2021-12-16 (or before) in NatureDuring permafrost thaw, nitrogen can be released as the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide, but the magnitude of this flux is unknown. Nitrous oxide emissions from ice-rich permafrost deposits are reported here, showing that emissions increase after thawing and stabilization and could represent an unappreciated positive climate feedback in the Arctic.
Tagged under: Arctic | Greenhouse Gases
Direct pesticide exposure of insects in nature conservation areas in Germany - Scientific Reports
2021-12-16 (or before) in NatureIn Germany, the decline of insect biomass was observed in nature conservation areas in agricultural landscapes. One of the main causal factors discussed is the use of synthetic pesticides in conventional agriculture. In a Germany-wide field study, we collected flying insects using Malaise traps in nature conservation areas adjacent to agricultural land. We used a multi-component chemical trace element analysis to detect 92 common agricultural pesticides in ethanol from insect traps sampled in May and August 2020. In total, residues of 47 current use pesticides were detected, and insect samples were on average contaminated with 1...
Tagged under: Germany | Insects
Carbon tax acceptability with information provision and mixed revenue uses - Nature Communications
2021-12-03 (or before) in NaturePublic acceptability of carbon taxation is vital for its implementation. Here, the authors show that spending all revenues on climate projects, rather than mixing them, is the most acceptable policy, while information provision only increases acceptability for a carbon tax with unspecified revenues.
New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected - Nature Communications
2021-11-30 (or before) in NatureThe Arctic warms faster than other areas of the planet, which also influences precipitation. Here, the authors show that the latest CMIP6 model ensemble shows a faster Arctic warming and sea-ice loss, causing an earlier transition from a snow- to a rain-dominated Arctic than previously thought.
Tagged under: Arctic
Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change - Nature Communications
2021-11-27 (or before) in NatureThe degree to which wildfire activity in Australia is affected by climate change is not well quantified. Here, the authors show that the frequency of forest fires and the area burned have increased significantly over recent decades, mainly due to an increase in dangerous fire weather conditions through warmer temperature and circulation changes.
Tagged under: Wildfires | Climate Change | Forest Fires | Trees
Mapping the irrecoverable carbon in Earth’s ecosystems - Nature Sustainability
2021-11-20 (or before) in NatureAvoiding catastrophic climate change requires that we avoid losing key natural carbon reserves. This study maps such irrecoverable carbon globally and finds a third of the remaining managed by Indigenous peoples and local communities and nearly a quarter in protected areas.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Sustainability
The social shortfall and ecological overshoot of nations
2021-11-18 (or before) in NaturePrevious research has shown that no country currently meets the basic needs of its residents at a level of resource use that could be sustainably extended to all people globally. Using the doughnut-shaped ‘safe and just space’ framework, we analyse the historical dynamics of 11 social indicators and 6 biophysical indicators across more than 140 countries from 1992 to 2015. We find that countries tend to transgress biophysical boundaries faster than they achieve social thresholds. The number of countries overshooting biophysical boundaries increased over the period from 32–55% to 50–66%, depending on the i...
Tagged under: Health
Global mapping of crop-specific emission factors highlights hotspots of nitrous oxide mitigation - Nature Food
2021-10-21 (or before) in NatureEstimating the global cropland N2O mitigation potential is limited by the uncertainty and variability of direct emission factors (EFs). Here, using a data-driven approach with 1,507 chamber-based field observations of EFs, the study shows that EF variation is primarily driven by climatic and edaphic factors. Two-thirds of the mitigation potential could be achieved on one-fifth of the global harvested area, mainly located in humid subtropical climates and across gleysols and acrisols.
Tagged under: Climate Change Mitigation
Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years - Nature
2021-10-19 (or before) in NatureNo overall trend in hurricane frequency has been detected so far. But using a new measure of a hurricane power, Kerry Emanuel shows that the destructive potential of tropical cyclones has nearly doubled over the past 30 years, and is highly correlated with tropical sea-surface temperature. Storms are on average lasting longer and developing greater intensity than they did in the mid-1970s. Such a dramatic increase is matter for concern: future global warming would almost certainly increase sea-surface temperatures and hence the destructive potential of tropical cyclones. With populations in coastal areas also on the increase, mo...
Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California - Nature Climate Change
2021-10-14 (or before) in NatureCalifornia recently experienced a rapid shift from multi-year drought to abundant rainfall. A large ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the frequency of extreme wet-to-dry precipitation events will increase by 25% to 100% across California due to anthropogenic forcing.
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Extreme Rainfall | Drought | Climate Change | California
Public health impacts of an imminent Red Sea oil spill - Nature Sustainability
2021-10-11 (or before) in NatureThe possibility of a huge oil spill off the coast of Yemen, already in crisis, is increasingly likely. This study projects the likely spill extent and impacts to public health, food, water and air.
Tagged under: Health | Sustainability
Increasing heat and rainfall extremes now far outside the historical climate - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
2021-10-08 (or before) in NatureOver the last decade, the world warmed by 0.25 °C, in-line with the roughly linear trend since the 1970s. Here we present updated analyses showing that this seemingly small shift has led to the emergence of heat extremes that would be virtually impossible without anthropogenic global warming. Also, record rainfall extremes have continued to increase worldwide and, on average, 1 in 4 rainfall records in the last decade can be attributed to climate change. Tropical regions, comprised of vulnerable countries that typically contributed least to anthropogenic climate change, continue to see the strongest increase in extrem...
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Extreme Rainfall | Climate Change
Microsoft’s million-tonne CO2-removal purchase — lessons for net zero
2021-10-05 (or before) in NatureStrengthen markets, measures and definitions for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to fight climate change. Strengthen markets, measures and definitions for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to fight climate change.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Net Zero
The role of high-socioeconomic-status people in locking in or rapidly reducing energy-driven greenhouse gas emissions - Nature Energy
2021-10-01 (or before) in NatureHigh-socioeconomic-status individuals have a disproportionate effect on greenhouse gas emissions as consumers and through four other key roles they play in society. This Perspective examines the effect and suggests how future research could seek to reduce the resulting energy and climate impact.
Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases
Young people’s climate anxiety revealed in landmark survey
2021-09-22 in NatureChildren worldwide worry about the future and feel let down by governments, a huge study on attitudes towards climate change has found. Children worldwide worry about the future and feel let down by governments, a huge study on attitudes towards climate change has found.
Tagged under: Children | Climate Anxiety and Grief | Women and Children
Food systems: seven priorities to end hunger and protect the planet
2021-09-14 (or before) in NatureHere’s how the United Nations should harness science and technology to improve nutrition and safeguard the environment. Here’s how the United Nations should harness science and technology to improve nutrition and safeguard the environment.
Nature-based solutions can help cool the planet — if we act now
2021-09-14 (or before) in NatureAnalysis suggests that to limit global temperature rise, we must slash emissions and invest now to protect, manage and restore ecosystems and land for the future. Analysis suggests that to limit global temperature rise, we must slash emissions and invest now to protect, manage and restore ecosystems and land for the future.
Water, water not everywhere - Nature Climate Change
2021-09-06 (or before) in NatureTagged under: Climate Change
Global land change from 1982 to 2016 - Nature
2021-08-29 (or before) in NatureSatellite data for the period 1982–2016 reveal changes in land use and land cover at global and regional scales that reflect patterns of land change indicative of a human-dominated Earth system.
Tagged under: Land Use
How to win big for the climate: rein in the ‘super polluters’
2021-08-21 (or before) in NatureJust 5% of the world’s power plants account for almost three-quarters of carbon emissions from electricity generation. Just 5% of the world’s power plants account for almost three-quarters of carbon emissions from electricity generation.
Tagged under: Electricity
Urgent need for post-growth climate mitigation scenarios - Nature Energy
2021-08-20 (or before) in NatureEstablished climate mitigation scenarios assume continued economic growth in all countries, and reconcile this with the Paris targets by betting on speculative technological change. Post-growth approaches may make it easier to achieve rapid mitigation while improving social outcomes, and should be explored by climate modellers.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Economic Growth | Climate Change Mitigation
Global priority areas for ecosystem restoration - Nature
2021-08-17 (or before) in NatureMulticriteria optimization identifies global priority areas for ecosystem restoration and estimates their benefits for biodiversity and climate, providing cost–benefit analyses that highlight the importance of optimizing spatial planning and incorporating several biomes in restoration strategies.
The fraction of the global population at risk of floods is growing
2021-08-14 (or before) in NatureSatellite imaging combined with population data shows that, globally, the number of people living in flood-prone areas is growing faster than is the number living on higher ground — greatly increasing the potential impact of floods. An analysis of trends in flood exposure.
Net-zero emissions targets are vague: three ways to fix
2021-08-10 (or before) in NatureTo limit warming, action plans from countries and companies must be fair, rigorous and transparent. To limit warming, action plans from countries and companies must be fair, rigorous and transparent.
Tagged under: Net Zero
Urgent need for post-growth climate mitigation scenarios - Nature Energy
2021-08-08 (or before) in NatureEstablished climate mitigation scenarios assume continued economic growth in all countries, and reconcile this with the Paris targets by betting on speculative technological change. Post-growth approaches may make it easier to achieve rapid mitigation while improving social outcomes, and should be explored by climate modellers.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Economic Growth | Climate Change Mitigation
1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways - Nature Communications
2021-08-06 (or before) in NatureEstablished climate mitigation modelling relies on controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, but neglects to consider degrowth scenarios. Here the authors show that degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability and thus need to be thoroughly assessed.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Degrowth | Climate Change Mitigation | Sustainability
Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system - Nature Geoscience
2021-07-30 (or before) in NatureA synthesis of intervals of rapid climatic change evident in the geological record reveals some of the Earth system processes and tipping points that could lead to similar events in the future.
Tagged under: Tipping Points
The mortality cost of carbon - Nature Communications
2021-07-29 (or before) in NatureClimate change is expected to have impacts on human mortality, e.g. through increases in heat waves. Here, the author proposes a new metric to account for excess deaths from additional CO2 emissions, which allows to assess the mortality impacts of marginal emissions and leads to a substantial increase in the social costs of carbon.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Climate Change Impacts
Anthropogenic forcing and response yield observed positive trend in Earth’s energy imbalance - Nature Communications
2021-07-28 in NatureSatellite observations reveal a significant positive trend in Earth’s energy imbalance, but the contributing drivers have yet to be understood. Here, the authors show that it is exceptionally unlikely that this trend can be explained by internal variability; instead, anthropogenic forcing and feedbacks cause the trend.
Tagged under: Earth Energy Imbalance
Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes - Nature Climate Change
2021-07-28 (or before) in NatureChanges in extreme heat are often calculated as anomalies above a reference climatology. A different definition—week-day heatwaves surpassing the current record by large margins—shows that their occurrence probabilities depend on warming rate, not level, and are higher than during recent decades.
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Heatwaves | Climate Change
Climate economics: Make supply chains climate-smart - Nature
2021-07-25 (or before) in NatureSociety's infrastructure is hit hard by extreme weather. Networks of trade, transport and production need to adapt globally, says Anders Levermann.
Tagged under: Economics
Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges - Nature Communications
2021-07-25 (or before) in NatureThe Paris Agreement includes bottom-up pledges and top-down warming threshold. Under this setting where countries effectively choose their own fairness principle, this article assesses the global warming implied by each Nationally Determined Contribution to inform the future ratcheting-up process.
Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change - Nature
2021-07-14 (or before) in NatureAircraft observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and monoxide concentrations in Brazil show higher carbon emissions in eastern Amazonia than in the western part, which are linked to increased ecosystem stress and fire occurrence.
Tagged under: Deforestation | Amazon Rainforest | Brazil | Climate Change
Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere - Nature
2021-07-11 (or before) in NatureThere is evidence that human influence may be forcing the global ecosystem towards a rapid, irreversible, planetary-scale shift into a state unknown in human experience.
Radioisotopes demonstrate changes in global atmospheric circulation possibly caused by global warming - Scientific Reports
2021-07-11 (or before) in NatureIn this paper, we present a new method to study global atmospheric processes and their changes during the last decade. A cosmogenic radionuclide measured at ground-level, beryllium-7, is utilized as a proxy to study atmospheric dynamics. Beryllium-7 has two advantages: First, this radionuclide, primarily created in the lower stratosphere, attaches to aerosols that are transported downwards to the troposphere and travel around the globe with the general atmospheric circulation. By monitoring these particles, we can provide a global, simple, and sustainable way to track processes such as multi-annual variation of the troposphere, ...
Tagged under: Global Warming
Filling the evidentiary gap in climate litigation - Nature Climate Change
2021-07-01 (or before) in NatureLegal cases to force governments to reduce emissions or to pursue compensation for climate change-related losses are increasing. The scientific evidence used in such cases is found to be lagging behind state-of-the-art climate science; using up-to-date methodologies could improve causation claims.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Litigation
Shifting Republican views on climate change through targeted advertising - Nature Climate Change
2021-06-14 in NatureClimate change communication is more likely to persuade when the message and the messenger resonate with the audience’s values and identities. A campaign field experiment testing online messages tailored to US Republicans increased their climate change beliefs, risk perceptions and issue importance.
Deforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon - Nature Communications
2021-06-05 (or before) in NatureDeforestation in the Amazon region has suggested to influence precipitation in a non-linear way. Here, the authors show that forest loss is associated with decreasing precipitation after a scale-dependent threshold is crossed, which can cause stress on agriculture if deforestation is expanded.
Tagged under: Deforestation | Extreme Rainfall | Amazon Rainforest | Brazil | Trees
The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet - Nature
2021-06-04 (or before) in NatureModelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures.
Tagged under: Antarctic
Acute riverine microplastic contamination due to avoidable releases of untreated wastewater - Nature Sustainability
2021-05-14 (or before) in NatureThe authors show how untreated wastewater laced with microplastics and raw sewage is routinely discharged into UK river flows that are too low to disperse the microplastics downstream. This discharge creates acute microplastic contamination of river beds that threatens biodiversity and the quality of riverine habitats.
Tagged under: Microplastics and Nanoplastics | Rivers | Sustainability
Insights from early COVID-19 responses about promoting sustainable action - Nature Sustainability
2021-05-13 (or before) in NatureAligned action to address the COVID-19 crisis contrasts with the heterogeneous response to tackle climate and sustainability challenges. The authors discuss the importance of strong personal norms and lessons for sustainability.
Tagged under: Sustainability
Nature Sustainability
2021-05-13 (or before) in NatureNature Sustainability will publish significant original research from a broad range of natural, social and engineering fields about sustainability, its policy ...
Tagged under: Sustainability
Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation - Nature Climate Change
2021-05-06 (or before) in NatureE-fuels—hydrocarbon fuels synthesized from green hydrogen—can replace fossil fuels. This Perspective highlights the opportunities and risks of e-fuels, and concludes that hydrogen and e-fuels should be prioritized for sectors inaccessible to direct electrification.
Tagged under: Hydrogen | Climate Change | Fossil Fuels | Climate Change Mitigation
The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica - Nature
2021-05-05 (or before) in NatureAn observationally calibrated ice sheet–shelf model suggests that global warming of 3 °C will trigger rapid Antarctic ice loss, contributing about 0.5 cm per year of sea-level rise by 2100.
Tagged under: Antarctic | Sea Level
Coral reefs in the Anthropocene - Nature
2021-05-04 (or before) in NatureCoral reefs support immense biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services to many millions of people. Yet reefs are degrading rapidly in response to numerous anthropogenic drivers. In the coming centuries, reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change, and rising temperatures will transform them into new configurations, unlike anything observed previously by humans. Returning reefs to past configurations is no longer an option. Instead, the global challenge is to steer reefs through the Anthropocene era in a way that maintains their biological functions. Successful navigation of this transition will require radical chang...
Tagged under: Climate Change | Coral Reefs
Microplastic contamination of river beds significantly reduced by catchment-wide flooding - Nature Geoscience
2021-04-12 (or before) in NatureWinter floods flushed out 70% of the microplastic contamination from riverbed sediments in northwest England, according to analyses of sediment samples from 40 rural and urban sites.
Tagged under: Microplastics and Nanoplastics | Rivers
Higher yields and more biodiversity on smaller farms - Nature Sustainability
2021-03-26 (or before) in NatureMost of the world’s farms are small. This study finds that smaller farms have higher yields and biodiversity than larger ones but little difference in greenhouse gas emissions and profits.
Tagged under: Farming | Greenhouse Gases | Sustainability
Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change - Nature
2021-03-24 (or before) in NatureThis Review proposes an interdisciplinary framework for researching climate–society interactions that focuses on the mechanisms through which climate change has influenced societies, and the uncertainties of discerning this influence across different spatiotemporal scales.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Soil Carbon Storage
2021-03-24 (or before) in NatureSoil carbon storage is a vital ecosystem service, resulting from interactions of ecological processes. Human activities affecting these processes can lead to carbon loss or improved storage.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
2021-03-23 in NatureGlobal climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been lacking for the region. Here, we project future hot spells by using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and a comprehensive ensemble of regional climate projections for MENA. Our results, for a business-as-usual pathway, indicate that in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These even...
Protecting the global ocean for biodiversity, food and climate - Nature
2021-03-17 (or before) in NatureUsing a globally coordinated strategic conservation framework to plan an increase in ocean protection through marine protected areas can yield benefits for biodiversity, food provisioning and carbon storage.
Tagged under: Oceans
A safe operating space for humanity - Nature
2021-03-16 (or before) in NatureIdentifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental change, argue Johan Rockström and colleagues.
Global human-made mass exceeds all living biomass - Nature
2021-03-14 (or before) in NatureEstimates of global total biomass (the mass of all living things) and anthopogenic mass (the mass embedded in inanimate objects made by humans) over time show that we are roughly at the timepoint when anthropogenic mass exceeds total biomass.
The economic consequences of conserving or restoring sites for nature - Nature Sustainability
2021-03-09 (or before) in NatureNature benefits people in diverse ways, but insight on the relative value of conserving or restoring versus using intensively is limited. Synthesizing data from 62 sites worldwide, this study finds benefits from conservation and restoration often outweighing private ones and that these rise with the social cost of carbon.
Tagged under: Sustainability
Nuclear energy, ten years after Fukushima
2021-03-09 (or before) in NatureAmid the urgent need to decarbonize, the industry that delivers one-tenth of global electricity must consult the public on reactor research, design, regulation, location and waste. Amid the urgent need to decarbonize, the industry that delivers one-tenth of global electricity must consult the public on reactor research, design, regulation, location and waste.
Tagged under: Nuclear Power | Electricity
Projections of tropical heat stress constrained by atmospheric dynamics - Nature Geoscience
2021-03-08 (or before) in NatureLimiting global warming to 1.5 °C will prevent tropical regions from reaching the limit of human adaptability, according to robust dynamical constraints on projected heat stress.
Large-scale shift in the structure of a kelp forest ecosystem co-occurs with an epizootic and marine heatwave - Communications Biology
2021-03-05 (or before) in NatureMeredith McPherson et al. use a 34-year time series of satellite and in situ derived data to study bull kelp forests of northern California and demonstrate the ecosystem shifts following a marine heatwave event between 2014 and 2016. The results show that increased herbivory by sea urchins due to the loss of a predator reduced bull kelp forest resistance to fluctuating environmental conditions and point to the importance of ecosystem-based and adaptive management strategies.
Tagged under: Heatwaves | California | Trees
‘Climate neutral’ is a lie — abandon it as a goal
2021-03-04 (or before) in NatureLetter to the Editor
Fossil CO2 emissions in the post-COVID-19 era - Nature Climate Change
2021-03-03 (or before) in NatureGrowth in CO2 emissions has slowed since the Paris Agreement 5‚Äâyears ago. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a drop in emissions of about 7% in 2020 relative to 2019, but strong policy is needed to address underlying drivers and to sustain a decline in global emissions beyond the current crisis.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Tax havens and global environmental degradation - Nature Ecology & Evolution
2021-03-02 (or before) in NatureAnalysis from global fisheries and the Brazilian Amazon elaborates the links between financial flows through tax havens and environmental degradation.
Likely weakening of the Florida Current during the past century revealed by sea-level observations - Nature Communications
2021-02-25 (or before) in NatureUnderstanding trends in ocean circulation and dynamics is hampered by a lack of long-term records. Here the author uses probabilistic reanalysis of available data to show that transport by the Florida Current has declined over the past 110 years, indicating a slowdown of Atlantic Ocean circulation.
Tagged under: Oceans | Sea Level | Florida
Eight priorities for calculating the social cost of carbon
2021-02-19 (or before) in NatureAdvice to the Biden administration as it seeks to account for mounting losses from storms, wildfires and other climate impacts. Advice to the Biden administration as it seeks to account for mounting losses from storms, wildfires and other climate impacts.
Tagged under: Joe Biden | Wildfires
Seasonal origin of the thermal maxima at the Holocene and the last interglacial - Nature
2021-01-28 (or before) in NatureReanalysis of Holocene sea surface temperature records affirms the role of retreating ice and rising greenhouse gases in driving a steady increase in global temperatures over the past 12,000 years.
Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases
Thermally modulated lithium iron phosphate batteries for mass-market electric vehicles - Nature Energy
2021-01-19 (or before) in NatureTernary layered oxides dominate the current automobile batteries but suffer from material scarcity and operational safety. Here the authors report that, when operating at around 60 °C, a low-cost lithium iron phosphate-based battery exhibits ultra-safe, fast rechargeable and long-lasting properties.
Tagged under: Lithium | Batteries
Optimistic vs. pessimistic endings in climate change appeals - Humanities and Social Sciences Communications
2021-01-04 (or before) in NatureThe use of emotion in climate change appeals is a hotly debated topic. Warning about the perils of imminent mass extinction, climate change communicators are often accused of being unnecessarily ‘doomsday’ in their attempts to foster a sense of urgency and action among the public. Pessimistic messaging, the thinking goes, undermines engagement efforts, straining credulity and fostering a sense of helplessness, rather than concern. Widespread calls for more optimistic climate change messaging punctuate public discourse. This research puts these claims to the test, investigating how affective endings (optimistic vs. pe...
Tagged under: Climate Change
Global warming will happen faster than we think
2021-01-01 (or before) in NatureThree trends will combine to hasten it, warn Yangyang Xu, Veerabhadran Ramanathan and David G. Victor. Three trends will combine to hasten it, warn Yangyang Xu, Veerabhadran Ramanathan and David G. Victor.
Europe’s renewable energy directive poised to harm global forests - Nature Communications
2020-12-27 (or before) in NatureThis comment raises concerns regarding the way in which a new European directive, aimed at reaching higher renewable energy targets, treats wood harvested directly for bioenergy use as a carbon-free fuel. The result could consume quantities of wood equal to all Europe’s wood harvests, greatly increase carbon in the air for decades, and set a dangerous global example.
Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Trees
Calculation of external climate costs for food highlights inadequate pricing of animal products - Nature Communications
2020-12-23 (or before) in NatureAgricultural greenhouse gas emissions not only amplify the global climate crisis, but cause damage currently unaccounted for by food prices. Here the authors show the calculation of prices with internalized climate costs for food categories and production systems, revealing strong market distortions.
Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases | Food Production and Consumption
Proactive conservation to prevent habitat losses to agricultural expansion - Nature Sustainability
2020-12-21 (or before) in NatureAgricultural expansion to grow food, fibre and biofuel will further threaten biodiversity. This study finds that almost 90% of terrestrial vertebrate species will lose habitat to such expansion, but proactive food policies could reduce these threats.
Tagged under: Sustainability
Past perspectives on the present era of abrupt Arctic climate change - Nature Climate Change
2020-11-22 (or before) in NatureIn recent decades, the Arctic has warmed at over twice the global rate. This Perspective places these trends into the context of abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events in the palaeoclimate record, arguing that the contemporary Arctic is undergoing comparably abrupt climate change.
Tagged under: Arctic | Climate Change
Paris Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test - Nature Communications
2020-11-15 (or before) in NatureRelative economic benefits of achieving temperature targets have not properly accounted for damages at higher temperatures. Here the authors integrate dynamic cost-benefit analysis with a damage-cost curve and show that the Paris Climate Agreement constitutes the economically optimal policy pathway for the future.
Sustainable solutions to end hunger
2020-10-26 (or before) in NatureSustainable solutions to end hunger
Extraordinary human energy consumption and resultant geological impacts beginning around 1950 CE initiated the proposed Anthropocene Epoch - Communications Earth & Environment
2020-10-18 (or before) in NatureHuman energy consumption and productivity have steeply risen around 1950 CE, leading to a departure from the Earth’s Holocene state into the Anthropocene, suggests a quantitative analysis of humanity’s influence on the Earth system.
Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets - Nature
2020-10-09 (or before) in NatureIf the world can meet the target of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, economic damage will probably be greatly reduced, especially in poorer countries.
Tagged under: Climate Change Mitigation
Return to rapid ice loss in Greenland and record loss in 2019 detected by the GRACE-FO satellites - Communications Earth & Environment
2020-08-20 (or before) in NatureMass loss from the Greenland ice sheet returned to record levels in 2019, following unusually small loss in 2017-18, according to an analysis of satellite data from GRACE and its follow-on mission GRACE-FO.
Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy - Nature Energy
2020-07-28 (or before) in NatureOffshore wind power has often been assumed to be costly and dependent on subsidies to survive. Using the latest auction data from five European countries Jansen et al. show that in mature markets offshore wind is already competitive without subsidies.
Tagged under: Wind Power
Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from national climate legislation - Nature Climate Change
2020-07-14 (or before) in NatureClimate change laws are shown to reduce national CO2 emissions by 0.78% in their first three years and 1.79% in the longer term. These reductions add up to 38 GtCO2 of avoided emissions for 1999–2016—equal to a year of CO2 emissions.
Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases | Climate Change | Legislation
Pulling carbon from the sky is necessary but not sufficient
2020-07-09 (or before) in NatureCarbon dioxide removal is becoming a serious proposition. But it is not a substitute for aggressive action to cut emissions. Carbon dioxide removal is becoming a serious proposition. But it is not a substitute for aggressive action to cut emissions.
Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands - Nature
2020-07-08 (or before) in NatureA detailed assessment of the techno-economic potential of enhanced rock weathering on croplands identifies national CO2 removal potentials, costs and engineering challenges if it were to be scaled up to help meet ambitious global CO2 removal targets.
Scientists’ warning on affluence - Nature Communications
2020-06-28 (or before) in NatureCurrent environmental impact mitigation neglects over-consumption from affluent citizens as a primary driver. The authors highlight the role of bottom-up movements to overcome structural economic growth imperatives spurring consumption by changing structures and culture towards safe and just systems.
Tagged under: Economic Growth | Climate Change Mitigation
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change - Nature
2020-04-08 (or before) in NatureUsing annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Small phytoplankton dominate western North Atlantic biomass - The ISME Journal
2020-04-03 (or before) in NatureThe North Atlantic phytoplankton spring bloom is the pinnacle in an annual cycle that is driven by physical, chemical, and biological seasonality. Despite its important contributions to the global carbon cycle, transitions in plankton community composition between the winter and spring have been scarcely examined in the North Atlantic. Phytoplankton composition in early winter was compared with latitudinal transects that captured the subsequent spring bloom climax. Amplicon sequence variants (ASVs), imaging flow cytometry, and flow-cytometry provided a synoptic view of phytoplankton diversity. Phytoplankton communities were not ...
Large inequality in international and intranational energy footprints between income groups and across consumption categories - Nature Energy
2020-03-18 (or before) in NatureDetailed measures of energy use inequality globally and within countries are essential to ensure a just energy transition. Estimating embedded energy in goods and services used by different income groups, Oswald et al. measure the large inequality in energy use in 86 countries, and internationally.
Regime shifts occur disproportionately faster in larger ecosystems - Nature Communications
2020-03-10 (or before) in NatureLittle is known about how the speed of ecosystem collapse depends on ecosystem size. Here, Cooper, Willcock et al. analyse empirical data and models finding that although regime shift duration increases with ecosystem size, this relationship saturates and even large ecosystems can collapse in a few decades.
Tagged under: Collapse
Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion
2020-03-02 (or before) in NatureSandy beaches occupy more than one-third of the global coastline1 and have high socioeconomic value related to recreation, tourism and ecosystem services2. Beaches are the interface between land and ocean, providing coastal protection from marine storms and cyclones3. However the presence of sandy beaches cannot be taken for granted, as they are under constant change, driven by meteorological4,5, geological6 and anthropogenic factors1,7. A substantial proportion of the world’s sandy coastline is already eroding1,7, a situation that could be exacerbated by climate change8,9. Here, we show that ambient trends in shoreline dy...
Tagged under: Oceans | Amazon Rainforest | Climate Change | Sea Level
Set a global target for ecosystems
2020-02-22 (or before) in NatureThe conservation community must be able to track countries’ progress in protecting wetlands, reefs, forests and more, argue James Watson and colleagues. The conservation community must be able to track countries’ progress in protecting wetlands, reefs, forests and more, argue James Watson and colleagues.
Tagged under: Forests | Wildlife | Conservation | Coral Reefs | Wetlands | Trees
Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter
2020-02-06 (or before) in NatureMultiple elements of soil biodiversity drive ecosystem functions across biomes - Nature Ecology & Evolution
2020-02-04 (or before) in NatureCombining field data from 83 sites on five continents, together with microcosm experiments, the authors show that nutrient cycling, decomposition, plant production and other ecosystem functions are positively associated with a higher diversity of a wide range of soil organisms.
Climate politics, metaphors and the fractal carbon trap - Nature Climate Change
2020-01-20 (or before) in NatureIn this Perspective, the authors argue that defining the climate change problem as one of decarbonization rather than emissions reduction suggests a new guiding metaphor — the global fractal — which may be a more productive conceptualization for research and policy than the global commons.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Scientists must act on our own warnings to humanity - Nature Ecology & Evolution
2020-01-06 (or before) in NatureWe face interconnected planetary emergencies threatening our climate and ecosystems. Charlie J. Gardner and Claire F. R. Wordley argue that scientists should join civil disobedience movements to fight these unprecedented crises.
Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region
2019-12-11 (or before) in NatureRecent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (O...
Tagged under: Arctic | Predictions
Carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow amidst slowly emerging climate policies - Nature Climate Change
2019-12-05 (or before) in NatureA failure to recognize the factors behind continued emissions growth could limit the world’s ability to shift to a pathway consistent with 1.5 °C or 2 °C of global warming. Continued support for low-carbon technologies needs to be combined with policies directed at phasing out the use of fossil fuels.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Fossil Fuels
Latest climate models confirm need for urgent mitigation - Nature Climate Change
2019-12-03 (or before) in NatureMany recently updated climate models show greater future warming than previously. Separate lines of evidence suggest that their warming rates may be unrealistically high, but the risk of such eventualities only emphasizes the need for rapid and deep reductions in emissions.
Tagged under: Climate Change | Climate Change Mitigation
Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against
2019-12-02 (or before) in NatureThe growing threat of abrupt and irreversible climate changes must compel political and economic action on emissions. The growing threat of abrupt and irreversible climate changes must compel political and economic action on emissions.
Tagged under: Tipping Points | Climate Change
Robust evidence of declines in insect abundance and biodiversity
2019-11-27 (or before) in NatureData are mounting that document widespread insect losses. A long-term research project now provides the strongest evidence of this so far, and demonstrates the value of standardized monitoring programmes. Long-term standardized monitoring reveals the scale of biodiversity losses.
Tagged under: Insects
Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region - Nature Climate Change
2019-10-22 (or before) in NatureWinter warming in the Arctic will increase the CO2 flux from soils. A pan-Arctic analysis shows a current loss of 1,662‚ÄâTgC per year over the winter, exceeding estimated carbon uptake in the growing season; projections suggest a 17% increase under RCP 4.5 and a 41% increase under RCP 8.5 by 2100.
Tagged under: Arctic | Climate Change
No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes - Nature Climate Change
2019-10-17 (or before) in NatureObservational data show a continued increase of hot extremes over land during the so-called global warming hiatus. This tendency is greater for the most extreme events and thus more relevant for impacts than changes in global mean temperature.
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Climate Change | Climate Change Impacts
Time series of heat demand and heat pump efficiency for energy system modeling - Scientific Data
2019-10-01 in NatureMeasurement(s) time sampled measurement data set • heating Technology Type(s) computational modeling technique • digital curation Factor Type(s) year Sample Characteristic - Environment anthropogenic environment Sample Characteristic - Location Austria • Belgium • Bulgaria • Czech Republic • Germany • French Republic • Great Britain • Croatia • Hungary • Republic of Ireland • Kingdom of the Netherlands • Poland • Romania • Slovenia • Slovak Republic Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.98...
The hard truths of climate change — by the numbers
2019-09-22 (or before) in NatureA set of troubling charts shows how little progress nations have made toward limiting greenhouse-gas emissions.
Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases | Climate Change
Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians - Nature Communications
2019-08-18 (or before) in NatureThe role of climate change (CC) contrarians is neglected in climate change communication studies. Here the authors used a data-driven approach to identify CC contrarians and CC scientists and found that CC scientists have much higher citation impact than those for contrarians but lower media visibility.
Tagged under: Climate Change
Teenage activists and an IPCC triumph
2019-08-17 (or before) in NatureThe latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a well-timed blueprint for action. Decision makers must now pay attention — a nascent youth movement is showing them how. The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a well-timed blueprint for action.
Tagged under: Activism | Climate Change | IPCC
Solar PV Power Potential is Greatest Over Croplands - Scientific Reports
2019-08-14 (or before) in NatureSolar energy has the potential to offset a significant fraction of non-renewable electricity demands globally, yet it may occupy extensive areas when deployed at this level. There is growing concern that large renewable energy installations will displace other land uses. Where should future solar power installations be placed to achieve the highest energy production and best use the limited land resource? The premise of this work is that the solar panel efficiency is a function of the location’s microclimate within which it is immersed. Current studies largely ignore many of the environmental factors that influence Photovo...
Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Land Use | Solar Energy | Electricity | Sustainability
Potential for widespread electrification of personal vehicle travel in the United States - Nature Energy
2019-06-10 (or before) in NatureLarge-scale adoption of electric vehicles will only occur if the needs of individual drivers are met. Here the authors present a model of the energy consumption of personal vehicles in the USA, allowing an evaluation of the adoption potential of electric vehicles.
Tagged under: USA
Clean energy enters virtuous cycle - Nature
2019-06-10 (or before) in NatureTagged under: Renewable Energy
How I stave off despair as a climate scientist
2019-03-03 (or before) in NatureSo much warming, so many dire effects, so little action — Dave Reay reveals how dreams of soggy soil and seaweed keep him going. So much warming, so many dire effects, so little action — Dave Reay reveals how dreams of soggy soil and seaweed keep him going.
Tagged under: Climate Anxiety and Grief | Global Warming
Landmark Australian ruling rejects coal mine over global warming
2019-02-11 (or before) in NatureThe case is the first time a mine has been refused in the country because of climate change. The case is the first time a mine has been refused in the country because of climate change.
Tagged under: Coal | Climate Change
On the wrong track: ocean acidification attracts larval fish to irrelevant environmental cues - Scientific Reports
2018-04-11 in NaturePopulation replenishment of marine life largely depends on successful dispersal of larvae to suitable adult habitat. Ocean acidification alters behavioural responses to physical and chemical cues in marine animals, including the maladaptive deterrence of settlement-stage larval fish to odours of preferred habitat and attraction to odours of non-preferred habitat. However, sensory compensation may allow fish to use alternative settlement cues such as sound. We show that future ocean acidification reverses the attraction of larval fish (barramundi) to their preferred settlement sounds (tropical estuarine mangroves). Instead, acidi...
Tagged under: Fish | Ocean Acidification
Global risk of deadly heat - Nature Climate Change
2017-06-19 in NatureClimatic conditions that challenge human thermoregulatory capacity currently affect around a quarter of the world’s population annually. Such conditions are projected to increase in line with CO2 emissions particularly in the humid tropics.
Tagged under: Climate Change Impacts | Extreme Heat | Climate Change
El Niño and a record CO2 rise - Nature Climate Change
2016-06-13 in NatureThe recent El Niño event has elevated the rise in CO2 concentration this year. Here, using emissions, sea surface temperature data and a climate model, we forecast that the CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa will for the first time remain above 400 ppm all year, and hence for our lifetimes.
Tagged under: El Niño
Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation - Nature Communications
2016-06-02 in NatureThe phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) impacts global temperatures. Here, the authors show that a build-up of off-equatorial western tropical Pacific heat content allows ENSO events to trigger IPO phase changes, with a predicted switch to a positive IPO for 2015–2019 and larger warming trends.
Pope Francis pushes for action to limit climate change - Nature
2015-06-16 in NatureThe Pope warns of “grave consequences” from unchecked warming.
Tagged under: Global Warming | Pope Francis
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