The Elephant
A resource for journalists, politicians, policy makers, activists and citizens interested in climate change and the environmental emergency
The ElephantA resource for journalists, politicians, policy makers, activists and citizens interested in climate change and the environmental emergency
September 2023 ENSO Outlook: An El Niño convo
2023-10-04 (or before) in Climate.govThe September 2023 ENSO Outlook predicts El Niño will stick around at least through January-March 2024. But don't just take it from us, hear directly from the Pacific Ocean and tropical atmosphere, who join the blog to answer some questions.
Tagged under: Oceans | Predictions | El Niño
The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions
2023-09-09 (or before) in American Meteorological Society JournalsFaced by the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organizations are increasingly seeking quantitative predictions of regional and local climate. An important issue for these decision makers, and for organizations that fund climate research, is what is the potential for climate science to deliver improvements—especially reductions in uncertainty—in such predictions? Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from three distinct sources: internal variability, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. Using data from a suite of climate models, we separate and quantify these sources. Fo...
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change
Antarctica warming much faster than models predicted in ‘deeply concerning’ sign for sea levels
2023-09-07 in The GuardianStudy finds ‘direct evidence’ of polar amplification on continent as scientists warn of implications of ice loss
Tagged under: Global Warming | Predictions | Antarctic | Sea Level
Exxon Predicts World Will Miss Climate-Change Targets
2023-08-29 (or before) by in The Wall Street Journal - Breaking News, Business, Financial & Economic News, World News and VideoTagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Exxon
How climate scientists feel about seeing their dire predictions come true
2023-08-18 in Los Angeles TimesWildfires in Canada and Hawaii. Hurricane Hilary set to strike California. Scientists have warned about worse storms and more frequent fires for years.
Tagged under: Predictions | California | Wildfires
Major 'Population Correction' Coming For Humanity, Scientist Predicts
2023-08-18 by in ScienceAlertA little over two centuries ago, in the year 1800, roughly a billion people called Earth home.
Tagged under: Predictions
Is the climate crisis finally catching up with Antarctica? Finding the answer has never been more pressing | Andrew Meijers
2023-08-07 in The GuardianOur inability to confidently predict sea level rise between an extremely challenging two metres and a civilisation-ending 10 metres is an exemplar of the problem facing researchers
Tagged under: Oceans | Predictions | Antarctic | Sea Level
Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation - Nature Communications
2023-07-25 (or before) in NatureThe Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.
Tagged under: Predictions | Collapse | Tipping Points
‘No one wants to be right about this’: climate scientists’ horror and exasperation as global predictions play out
2023-07-24 in The GuardianAs the northern hemisphere burns, experts feel deep sadness – and resentment – while dreading what lies ahead this Australian summer
Tagged under: Predictions | Fossil Fuels | El Niño | Heatwaves | Wildfires
Excessive heat: Why this summer has been so hot - BBC News
2023-07-14 (or before) in The BBCExperts are predicting that the developing El Niño is likely to make 2023 the world's hottest year.
Tagged under: Predictions
Unprecedented ocean temperatures "much higher than anything the models predicted," climate experts warn - CBS News
2023-07-11 (or before) in CBS NewsNOAA warned in late June that half of the world's oceans may experience marine heat wave conditions by September.
Tagged under: Oceans | Predictions
Weather, Climate and the Nature of Predictability
2023-07-09 (or before) in ResearchGatePDF | The prediction and simulation of future weather and climate is a key ingredient in good weather risk management. This chapter briefly reviews the... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate
Tagged under: Predictions
A conceptual framework for predicting temperate ecosystem sensitivity to human impacts on fire regimes
2023-07-09 (or before) in Wiley Online LibraryAbstract Aim The increased incidence of large fires around much of the world in recent decades raises questions about human and non-human drivers of fire and the likelihood of increased fire activi...
Tagged under: Predictions
Ofwat boss denies water industry badly regulated as he predicts higher bills
2023-07-05 in The GuardianDavid Black says water firms’ debt is ‘their issue to sort out’ because regulator did not have powers to tackle problem until recently
Tagged under: Predictions | Finance
Greenland and Antarctica Cracking | FlaglerLive
2023-07-01 (or before) by in flaglerlive.comEarth’s remaining ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are far more vulnerable to climate warming than models predict.
Tagged under: Predictions | Antarctic
Global warming intensifies rainfall in mountainous regions
2023-06-29 (or before) in NatureAs the climate warms, the amount of atmospheric water vapour increases and the type of precipitation shifts towards more rain and less snow. These two mechanisms amplify the intensity of rainfall extremes in high-elevation regions by 15% per degree Celsius of warming, approximately double the previously reported rate. An increase in precipitation combined with a reduction in the fraction falling as snow is predicted to result in more-extreme rainfall in high-elevation regions.
Tagged under: Predictions
LEAK: Commission dismissive of food security fears in new pesticide study
2023-06-19 (or before) in EURACTIVThe EU plan to cut pesticide use and risk in half by 2030 will have its largest impact on crops having 'little or no impact on food security', the European Commission predicted in its additional impact assessment requested by EU ministers.
Tagged under: Predictions
El Niño is coming. We must plan for the worst to protect Australia’s energy system | Dylan McConnell and Iain MacGill
2023-06-09 in The GuardianThe Bureau of Meteorology predicts increased temperatures and heatwaves this year, raising the prospect of blackouts – just as the electricity sector faces several other challenges
Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Predictions | Fossil Fuels | Electricity | El Niño | Heatwaves
Antarctic alarm bells: observations reveal deep ocean currents are slowing earlier than predicted
2023-05-25 by in The ConversationScientists have detected a 30% slowdown of the deep ocean currents that form in Antarctica, with profound consequences for Earth’s climate, sea level and marine life.
Tagged under: Oceans | Predictions | Antarctic | Sea Level
New Ice Discovery Means Glaciers Could Melt Way Faster Than Predicted
2023-05-09 by in ScienceAlertA closer look at the junction where a Greenland glacier crunches into the ocean floor, known as its grounding line, has revealed less stability amid the shifting of tides – and therefore a greater rate of melting – than previously estimated thanks...
Tagged under: Oceans | Predictions | Ice Melting
Foot of rain causes severe flooding in South Florida in ‘1-in-1,000 year event’
2023-04-13 in The GuardianForecasts predicted more rain on Thursday as Fort Lauderdale issues a state of emergency with flooding persisting in parts of city
Tagged under: Predictions | Florida
Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
2023-04-05 (or before) in PNAS - Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencePoikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation i...
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Climate Change Impacts
The oceans just reached their hottest temperature on record as El Niño looms. Here are 6 things to watch for | CNN
2023-04-01 by in CNNIt's unclear how strong the coming El Niño will be -- some models predict it could reach super-strength, others suggest it will be more moderate.
Tagged under: Oceans | Drought | Predictions | Climate Change | Antarctic | Flooding | El Niño | Health | Climate Change Impacts | Finance
‘Slipping through our fingers’: New Zealand scientists distraught at scale of glacier loss
2023-03-31 in The GuardianResearch institute NIWA predicts many of country’s most important glaciers will be gone within the decade
Tagged under: Predictions
Greta Thunberg and Sophia Kianni face disgusting misogyny from climate deniers | Red, Green, and Blue
2023-03-21 in Red, Green and BlueHappy Women’s History Month! Unfortunately, it comes as no surprise that the climate disinformation sphere is once again filled with misogynistic attacks against women climate activists. By Climate Denier Roundup Recently, Greta Thunberg was targeted on social media for allegedly deleting a 2018 tweet that linked to an article that predicted climate change would wipe out humanity by 2023. However, …
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Activism | Disinformation and Misinformation | Women and Children
Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies
2023-03-21 (or before) in Climate Prediction CenterTagged under: Predictions
BSC News
2023-03-14 (or before) in bsc.esTagged under: Predictions
Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception - Nature
2023-03-12 (or before) in NatureA critical functional relationship between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide concentration is proposed and tested with simulations; it accounts for the beginning of the past eight glacial cycles and predicts that the next one is unusually far off, even without the effect of anthropogenic emissions.
Tagged under: Predictions
Solar’s stunning journey from lab curiosity to global juggernaut wiping out fossil fuels
2023-02-10 in Renew Economy | News and analysis for the clean energy economyLeading solar researcher predicts technology will “wipe fossil fuels” out of the global economy, and help deliver a resilient, reliable and extremely cheap energy grid.
Tagged under: Solar Energy | Predictions | Fossil Fuels | Electricity Grid
Stanford study uses AI to predict global warming threshold timelines
2023-02-06 in woods.stanford.eduMedia coverage of a new Stanford-led study that uses AI to predict when we will pass key global warming thresholds. The Guardian | Jan 30, 2023 | Earth is on track to exceed 1.5C warming in the next decade, study using AI finds | Noah Diffenbaugh discusses the evidence and impact of the study's climate projections. USA Today | Jan 30, 2023 | Artificial intelligence predicts climate change coming faster than we recently thought, new study says | Noah Diffenbaugh on the risk of passing significant climate thresholds.
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Sustainability
ExxonMobil: Oil giant predicted climate change in 1970s - scientists - BBC News
2023-01-13 (or before) in The BBCResearchers claim to put a number on what Exxon knew about temperature rise as early as the 1970s.
Tagged under: Exxon | Predictions | Climate Change
Exxon scientists predicted global warming with ‘shocking skill and accuracy,’ Harvard researchers say
2023-01-12 in Harvard GazetteIn the study, scientists showed how the multinational energy giant worked to cloud the issue.
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Exxon | Fossil Fuels
"Exxon Knew:" Company's climate research accurately projected global warming, study says
2023-01-12 in AxiosTagged under: Exxon | Predictions
Nuclear energy in the UK - POST
2023-01-11 (or before) in post.parliament.ukNuclear electricity is a predictable and low-carbon part of the UK energy mix, currently providing 15% of the UK’s electricity. However, most existing nuclear power stations are set to close by 2030. The Government has an ambition to increase production of nuclear energy. One new nuclear power station is under construction (Hinkley Point C) and another (Sizewell C) has received planning consent. This POSTnote reviews the evidence surrounding the construction of new nuclear power stations and the ways in which nuclear might contribute to emission reduction targets.
Tagged under: Nuclear Power | Predictions | Electricity
Journalism, media, and technology trends and predictions 2023
2023-01-10 (or before) in reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.ukTagged under: Predictions
Why the Language of Climate Change Matters - Inside Climate News
2022-12-24 by in Inside Climate NewsIn a 1920 edition of a local Pennsylvania newspaper, a brief article appeared with a simple title: “The Chestnut.” Although this was a story about a species of tree, it read more like an obituary for a beloved relative. “All hope is abandoned of saving the American chestnut from the blight,” the writer declared, predicting […]
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change
I predicted the 2008 crash – these are the global 'megathreats' I can see now | Nouriel Roubini
2022-11-05 in The GuardianLife as we know it is under threat, as short-term-thinking politicians ignore the signs that point to a dystopian future, says Nouriel Roubini
Tagged under: Predictions | Economics
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions
2022-10-22 (or before) in ESDAbstract. Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 °C relative to the 1880–1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 °C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6&ndash...
Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases | Predictions | Climate Change | Sea Level | Climate Change Impacts | Trees
The homogenization of avian morphological and phylogenetic diversity under the global extinction crisis
2022-08-15 (or before) in Cell PressThe global extinction crisis will lead to widespread losses of morphological diversity. Hughes et al. show that predicted species extinctions drive far greater declines of ecological strategies than predicted, with important ramifications for humans as ecosystem services are lost. In contrast, phylogenetic diversity declines as expected.
Tagged under: Predictions
A dynamic model of nonviolent resistance strategy
2022-08-08 (or before) in PLOS - Open ScienceWhy have some nonviolent revolutions succeeded even with modest participation numbers, while others have failed despite massive mobilization? We develop an agent-based model that predicts the outcomes of three well-known activism strategies. The first rapidly recruits a wide number of activists, which overwhelms the opponent’s support network and encourages large-scale defections. In the second, activists who have already mobilized remain committed to success and inspire other civilians to protest even when they are unable to protest themselves. In the third strategy, campaigns focus their energy and influence directly on ...
Tagged under: Activism | Predictions | Finance
New study reveals that climate change will severely impact bird species by 2080
2022-08-04 (or before) in Phys.org - News and Articles on Science and TechnologyBioscientists from Durham University, UK and Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Germany have predicted in their latest research that bird communities will change worldwide in 2080 due to climate change, largely as result of shifting their ranges.
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change
Negative IOD declared
2022-08-02 (or before) in Weather Zone AustraliaA wet spring could be on the cards for large parts of Australia with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole now officially underway in the Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) refers to a pattern of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean that causes more moisture-laden air to flow towards Australia. These negative IOD events, which occur on average once every five years, typically enhance northwest cloudbands over Australia and produce above-average rain over large areas of country's south and southeast during winter and spring. The Bureau of Meteorology has today declared that a negative IOD ev...
Tagged under: Oceans | Extreme Weather | Extreme Rainfall | Predictions
404 mm breaks July rainfall record in Sydney
2022-08-01 (or before) in Weather Zone AustraliaSydney has just broken a monthly rainfall record for the second time this year, continuing the city’s prolific run of wet weather in 2022. Sydney’s main rain gauge at Observatory Hill, located next to the Harbour Bridge, collected a whopping 404.0 mm of rain during July. This is more than four times its long-term monthly average and the highest July total in records dating back to 1858, beating 336.1 mm from 1950. Sydney has now registered two record wet months in 2022, with July’s 404.0 mm and March’s 554.0 mm both unrivalled in more than 160 years of observations at the site. The city&rsquo...
Tagged under: Extreme Rainfall | Australia | Predictions
Do these heat waves mean climate change is happening faster than expected?
2022-07-22 in PreventionWeb.net: the knowledge platform for disaster risk reductionGeneral warming predictions are still on track, but recent heat waves are a stress test for the modeling of extreme events. Are they more extreme than studies had predicted they would be, given the levels of greenhouse gases now in the atmosphere?
Tagged under: Global Warming | Predictions | Climate Change
Wolf attacks predict far-right voting | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
2022-07-19 (or before) in PNAS - Proceedings of the National Academy of ScienceDoes the return of large carnivores affect voting behavior? We study this question through the lens of wolf attacks on livestock. Sustained environ...
Tagged under: Predictions | Wildlife
Humans will be extinct in 100 years says eminent scientist
2022-07-08 (or before) in Phys.org - News and Articles on Science and Technology(PhysOrg.com) -- Eminent Australian scientist Professor Frank Fenner, who helped to wipe out smallpox, predicts humans will probably be extinct within 100 years, because of overpopulation, environmental destruction and climate change.
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change
Physicists predict Earth will become a chaotic world, with dire consequences
2022-05-25 in Live ScienceIf the Earth System gets into the region of chaotic behavior, we will lose all hope of somehow fixing the problem.
Tagged under: Predictions
Ross Clark
2022-05-16 (or before) by in DeSmogRoss Clark Credentials Background Ross Clark is a British journalist who has written for the Spectator, the Times, the Daily Mail, the Daily Express, and the Sun. [2] Clark regularly questions climate science in columns for the Spectator, arguing, for instance, that while “climatic observations” should be trusted, predictions should be taken with “a pinch of salt” because “the only […]
Tagged under: Predictions
Collapse is Coming. An Unsustainable Society Will Not Last.
2022-05-16 by in Deep Green Resistance News ServicePredictions of societal collapse have been made for decades. The general trends are undeniable. Collapse is coming. In fact, it's here.
Tagged under: Predictions | Collapse
Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk - Nature
2022-04-29 (or before) in NatureAt least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, climate and land use change will produce novel opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically-isolated species of wildlife3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here, we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographic range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under clim...
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Africa | Wildlife
Crop Failures More likely in Warmer, Dryer World - Woodwell Climate
2022-02-14 by in Woodwell Climate - Investigating the causes and effects of climate change.Models predict increasing crop failures in world's major breadbaskets over next three decades. Water availability will dictate resilience.
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change
Climate change: Science failed to predict flood and heat intensity - BBC News
2021-12-22 (or before) in The BBCScientists want a super-computer powerful enough to accurately project the most damaging extremes.
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Predictions | Climate Change
Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?
2021-12-21 (or before) in ScienceDirect.comOver the past two decades, skeptics of the reality and significance of anthropogenic climate change have frequently accused climate scientists of “ala…
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change
Climate Science Needs to Take Risk Assessment Much More Seriously
2021-12-21 (or before) in American Meteorological Society JournalsAbstract For decision-makers, climate change is a problem in risk assessment and risk management. It is, therefore, surprising that the needs and lessons of risk assessment have not featured more centrally in the consideration of priorities for physical climate science research, or in the Working Group I contributions to the major assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This article considers the reasons, which include a widespread view that the job of physical climate science is to provide predictions and projections—with a focus on likelihood rather than risk—and that risk assessment is...
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change
Great Barrier Reef could face another mass bleaching by end of January, forecast says
2021-12-18 in The GuardianScientists are hoping La Niña conditions might yet stave off threat from predicted heat accumulation in northern and central reef
Tagged under: Predictions | Wildlife | Great Barrier Reef | Coral Reefs
Soil Properties
2021-12-14 (or before) by in AdaptNSWClimate change modelling and predictions for the NSW and ACT
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Climate Change Impacts
Scientists improving the ‘crystal ball’ for better climate predictions
2021-11-19 (or before) in European CommissionWhat will Earth be like in 50 or 100 years? To make such predictions, the closest thing we have to a crystal ball is data. ‘Climate models help make sense out of the current state of the climate,’ said Dr Debbie Rosen, a research manager at the University of Leeds. ‘They can also be used to understand how the climate changed in the past, and for projecting future change.’ With data, policymakers can enact effective policy responses.
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change
How tracking forest biomass change from space informs carbon cycling models
2021-11-18 in Climate Home NewsSponsored content: Using a combination of data from different satellites, scientists are predicting the amount of above-ground biomass stored in the world's forests
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Trees
Emissions Gap Report 2021
2021-10-26 (or before) in UN Environment ProgrammeWith climate change intensifying and scientists warning that humanity is running out of time to limit global warming to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels, 2021 has been a fraught year for the planet. The Emissions Gap Report 2021: The Heat Is On is the 12th edition in an annual series that provides an overview of the difference between where greenhouse emissions are predicted to be in 2030 and where they should be to avert the worst impacts of climate change.
Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases | Predictions | Climate Change | Net Zero | Climate Change Impacts
Climate change could be worse than our worst-case analysis: Texas A&M's Dessler
2021-10-19 (or before) in CNBCAndrew Dessler, climate scientist at Texas A&M, explains the impact that extreme climate events are having on the world right now and says things could actually be worse than scientists' most dire predictions.
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Predictions | Climate Change
Climate change: Science failed to predict flood and heat intensity - BBC News
2021-10-19 (or before) in BBCScientists want a super-computer powerful enough to accurately project the most damaging extremes.
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Predictions | Climate Change
Climate action: demanding economic systems that safeguard life - The BMJ
2021-10-08 in BMJ Blogs“As health and social inequalities widen, and we learn more about the power held over human lives by an ever-diminishing number of individuals and corporations, I predict that more doctors [...]More...
Tagged under: Predictions | Health
Infertility poses major threat to biodiversity during climate change, study warns
2021-08-29 (or before) in EurekAlert! Science News ReleasesA new study by University of Liverpool ecologists warns that heat-induced male infertility will see some species succumb to the effects of climate change earlier than thought. Currently, scientists are trying to predict where species will be lost due to climate change so they can plan effective conservation strategies. However, research on temperature tolerance has generally focused on the temperatures that are lethal to organisms, rather than those at which organisms can no longer breed.
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change
Economists' erroneous estimates of damages from climate change
2021-08-22 (or before) in arXiv.org e-Print archiveEconomists have predicted that damages from global warming will be as low as 2.1% of global economic production for a 3$^\circ$C rise in global average surface temperature, and 7.9% for a 6$^\circ$C rise. Such relatively trivial estimates of economic damages -- when these economists otherwise assume that human economic productivity will be an order of magnitude higher than today -- contrast strongly with predictions made by scientists of significantly reduced human habitability from climate change. Nonetheless, the coupled economic and climate models used to make such predictions have been influential in the international climat...
Tagged under: Tipping Points | Predictions | Climate Change | Collapse
Past world economic production constrains current energy demands: Persistent scaling with implications for economic growth and climate change mitigation
2021-08-08 (or before) in PLOS - Open ScienceClimate change has become intertwined with the global economy. Here, we describe the contribution of inertia to future trends. Drawing from thermodynamic principles, and using 38 years of available statistics between 1980 to 2017, we find a constant scaling between current rates of world primary energy consumption E ( t ) and the historical time integral W of past world inflation-adjusted economic production Y, or W ( t ) = ∫ 0 t Y ( t ′ ) d t ′. In each year, over a period during which both E and W more than doubled, the ratio of the two remained nearly unchanged, that is λ = E ( t ) ( t ) / W ( t ) = 5 ....
Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Nuclear Power | Predictions | Climate Change | Economics | Fossil Fuels | Economic Growth | Climate Change Mitigation
Can we fix climate models to better predict record-shattering weather?
2021-07-27 (or before) by in New ScientistTagged under: Extreme Weather | Predictions | Climate Change
A Field Guide to Climate Anxiety
2021-07-25 (or before) in University of California PressGen Z's first "existential toolkit" for combating eco-guilt and burnout while advocating for climate justice. A youth movement is reenergizing global environmental activism. The “climate generation”—late millennials and iGen, or Generation Z—is demanding that policy makers and government leaders take immediate action to address the dire outcomes predicted by climate science.
Tagged under: Activism | Predictions | Climate Anxiety and Grief | Climate Justice
MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We’re on Schedule.
2021-07-19 (or before) in VICEA 1972 MIT study predicted that rapid economic growth would lead to societal collapse in the mid 21st century. A new paper shows we’re unfortunately right on schedule.
Tagged under: Predictions | Economic Growth | Collapse
Moist Heat Stress on a Hotter Earth
2021-07-04 (or before) in Annual ReviewsAs the world overheats—potentially to conditions warmer than during the three million years over which modern humans evolved—suffering from heat stress will become widespread. Fundamental questions about humans’ thermal tolerance limits are pressing. Understanding heat stress as a process requires linking a network of disciplines, from human health and evolutionary theory to planetary atmospheres and economic modeling. The practical implications of heat stress are equally transdisciplinary, requiring technological, engineering, social, and political decisions to be made in the coming century. Yet relative to th...
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Predictions | Health
War footing needed to correct economists climate change failings
2021-05-25 (or before) in CNBCEconomic forecasts predicting the potential impact of climate change grossly underestimate the reality and have delayed global recovery efforts by decades, a leading professor has said.
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change
Ignoring climate change will lead to unprecedented, societally disruptive heat extremes in the Middle East
2021-03-26 (or before) in Phys.org - News and Articles on Science and TechnologyThe Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA) is a climate change hot spot where summers warm much faster than in the rest of the world. Some parts of the region are already among the hottest locations globally. A new international study led by scientists from the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center of the Cyprus Institute and the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry predicts that ignoring the signals of climate change and continuing business as usual with increasing greenhouse gas emissions will lead to extreme, life-threatening heatwaves in the region. Such extraordinary heat events will have a severe impact on the people of...
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Heatwaves | Greenhouse Gases | Africa | Predictions | Climate Change | Middle East
Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future
2021-01-13 (or before) in FrontiersWe report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention and require urgent action. First, we review the evidence that future environmental conditions will be far more dangerous than currently believed. The scale of the threats to the biosphere and all its lifeforms — including humanity — is in fact so great that it is difficult to grasp for even well-informed experts. Second, we ask what political or economic system, or leadership, is prepared to handle the predicted disasters, or even capable of such action. Third, this dire situation places an extraordinary responsibility on s...
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Health | Sustainability
The Arctic is in a death spiral. How much longer will it exist?
2020-10-26 (or before) in The GuardianThe region is unravelling faster than anyone could once have predicted. But there may still be time to act
Tagged under: Arctic | Predictions | Climate Change | Ice Melting
Amusing Ourselves to Death: Revisiting the Prophetic Work of Neil Postman
2020-10-19 in Public DiscourseThirty-five years ago, New York University professor of communications Neil Postman predicted the political and social implosion we have witnessed in 2020. We must learn to dominate digital media technology, lest it dominate us. Otherwise, we may very well amuse ourselves, and our polis, to death.
Tagged under: Predictions
Rainforest at Biosphere 2 Offers Glimpse into Future of the Amazon
2020-10-12 in University of Arizona NewsTropical forests may be more resilient to climate change than previously thought, according to a new study. The results could help make climate prediction models more accurate.
Tagged under: Rainforests | Amazon Rainforest | Predictions | Climate Change | Trees
New studies confirm weakening of the Gulf Stream circulation (AMOC)
2020-09-17 in RealClimateMany of the earlier predictions of climate research have now become reality. The world is getting warmer, sea levels are rising faster and faster, and more frequent heat waves, extreme rainfall, devastating wildfires and more severe tropical storms are affecting many millions of people. Now there is growing evidence that another climate forecast is already coming true: the Gulf Stream system in the Atlantic is apparently weakening, with consequences for Europe too. ...
Tagged under: Extreme Rainfall | Wildfires | Predictions | Sea Level
New studies confirm weakening of the Gulf Stream circulation (AMOC)
2020-09-17 in RealClimateMany of the earlier predictions of climate research have now become reality. The world is getting warmer, sea levels are rising faster and faster, and more frequent heat waves, extreme rainfall, devastating wildfires and more severe tropical storms are affecting many millions of people. Now there is growing evidence that another climate forecast is already coming true: the Gulf Stream system in the Atlantic is apparently weakening, with consequences for Europe too. ...
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Extreme Rainfall | Wildfires | Predictions | Gulf Stream (AMOC) | Sea Level
AGU demands NOAA appointment be rescinded - From The Prow
2020-09-14 in From The ProwAGU urges revocation of David Legates’ appointment as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Observation and Prediction at NOAA.
Tagged under: Predictions
Most polar bears to disappear by 2100, study predicts
2020-07-20 in The GuardianMelting Arctic sea ice could cause starvation and reproductive failure for many as early as 2040, scientists warn
Tagged under: Arctic | Greenhouse Gases | Predictions | Wildlife | Ice Melting | Russia | Alaska
Climate change: New forecasts predict rising average temperatures, a warming Arctic and more Atlantic storms
2020-07-09 (or before) in Sky NewsThe analysis suggests annual global temperatures at least 1C above pre-industrial levels in each year between 2020 and 2024.
Tagged under: Arctic | Predictions | Climate Change
‘Six Months To Avert Climate Crisis’: Climate Breakdown And The Corporate Media
2020-06-23 in Media Lens - Correcting for the distorted vision of the corporate mediaIn his classic science fiction novel, ‘Foundation’, Isaac Asimov posited a future in which ‘psychohistorians’ could predict outcomes based on past history and the large-scale behaviour of human populations by combining psychology and the mathematics of probability. Using ‘psychohistory’, the protago
Tagged under: Predictions
BP confirms job cuts, reasserts clean energy pledge
2020-06-09 in Business GreenOil major announces it is to cut around 10,000 jobs globally, as CEO predicts coronavirus crisis will accelerate company's transition towards cleaner energy sources
Tagged under: BP | Predictions
UK Hydrological Status Update - May 2020 | UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
2020-05-27 (or before) in UK Centre for Ecology & HydrologyFor 2020 so far, the hydrological situation has been extremely mixed. In February we saw record-breaking rainfall and river flows, and one of the most significant flood events of recent years. Just a couple of months later, after a prolonged period of dry weather, records were broken at the other end of the hydrological spectrum. In the latest in a briefing note, this caused widespread and sustained flooding in many parts of the country.An exceptionally dry spring so far?March is often a 'transitional' spring month but the contrast between the UK Water Resources Portal. Figure right: April monthly mean river flows for the UK. Fr...
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Extreme Rainfall | Drought | Predictions | Flooding | Rivers | Sea Level | Health | Water Resources
Climate change is getting worse but it is no worse than we predicted - Climate Change Committee
2020-05-04 in Climate Change CommitteeWorsening climate change should not be mistaken for individual events that are worse than expected. Recent extremes give a clear picture of the impacts and risks that come with a human-driven warming climate. Extreme events also emphasise the urgency of action to achieve Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change, write Professor Piers Forster and Professor Corinne Le Quéré.
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Greenhouse Gases | Predictions | Climate Change | Net Zero | Climate Change Impacts
Nutrient dilution and climate cycles underlie declines in a dominant insect herbivore
2020-04-25 (or before) in PNAS - Proceedings of the National Academy of ScienceParsing variation in long-term patterns underlying insect abundances and assigning mechanisms are critical in light of recent reports of dramatic insect declines. Grasshopper abundances in a North American prairie exhibited both 5-y cycles and >2%/y declines over the past 20 y. Large-scale climate oscillations predicted the cycles in grasshopper abundances. Moreover, plant biomass doubled over the same period—likely due to changes in climate and increasing atmospheric CO2—diluting the concentrations in plant tissue of key nutrients which in turn predicted the declines of a dominant herbivore. Nutrient dilution, li...
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Insects | Insect Populations
The coronavirus pandemic is a dress rehearsal for what awaits us if governments continue to ignore science | John Hewson
2020-04-21 in The GuardianLeaders have failed to listen to clear warnings and predictions, but the response to Covid-19 is an inspiring indication of what we’re capable of
Tagged under: Bushfires | Predictions | US Politics
Are We Thinking About Climate Migration All Wrong?
2020-03-14 by in Rolling Stone - Music, Film, TV and Political News CoverageApocalyptic predictions may grab our attention, but they can also stoke xenophobia and miss the full picture of what’s happening on the ground
Tagged under: Predictions
UK must prepare for more intense storms, climate scientists say
2020-02-17 by Jonathan Watts in The GuardianGovernment urged to create more natural drainage systems to cope with impact of crisis
Tagged under: Storms. Hurricanes and Tornados | Predictions | UK | Extreme Weather | Climate Change
Manchester cycle network plan could be national blueprint, says Burnham
2020-01-28 in The GuardianMayor urges backing as report sets out predicted gains from walking and cycling scheme
Tagged under: Predictions
Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region
2019-12-11 (or before) in NatureRecent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (O...
Tagged under: Arctic | Predictions
Greenland's ice sheet melting seven times faster than in 1990s
2019-12-10 by Fiona Harvey in The GuardianScale and speed of loss much higher than predicted, threatening inundation for hundreds of millions of people
Tagged under: Oceans | Predictions | Science | Glaciers | Global Warming | Ice Melting | Greenland | Climate Change | Sea Level
Biodiversity in 2020: the biggest threats and opportunities
2019-12-05 in The GuardianScientists and conservation professionals predict mosquito-killing fungi and a kelp crisis could be among the trends affecting living things next year
Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Predictions | Wildlife
Climate models have accurately predicted global heating, study finds
2019-12-04 in The GuardianFindings confirm reliability of projections of temperature changes over last 50 years
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change
Renewables in the 2019 General Election
2019-11-26 in RenewableUK BlogIt’s less then three weeks to go till the general election and, though the final decision of the public still remains very hard to predict, nearly all of the major parties have published their manifestos, giving us a glimpse into the future. In this RenewableUK blog, Senior Public Affairs Manager, Nathan Bennett, compares the major parties' manifesto commitments to renewables. Climate change has been a higher feature of this election than any one previously. To add to this, renewables have never
Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Predictions | Climate Change
'4°C of global warming is optimal' – even Nobel Prize winners are getting things catastrophically wrong
2019-11-14 by in The ConversationWilliam Nordhaus’ predictions of what the climate crisis will cost the earth are dangerously at odds with climate science.
Tagged under: Predictions
Climate crisis: 11,000 scientists warn of ‘untold suffering’
2019-11-05 by Damian Carrington in The GuardianStatement sets out ‘vital signs’ as indicators of magnitude of the climate emergency
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Extreme Weather
Offshore windfarms 'can provide more electricity than the world needs'
2019-10-25 in The GuardianSupplies from turbines will prove to be the next great energy revolution, IEA predicts
Tagged under: Renewable Energy | Predictions | Wind Power | Electricity
Airlines' CO2 emissions rising up to 70% faster than predicted
2019-09-19 in The GuardianCarbon dioxide emitted by commercial flights rose by 32% from 2013 to 2018, study shows
Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases | Predictions
Oceans Are Melting Glaciers from Below Much Faster than Predicted, Study Finds - Inside Climate News
2019-07-25 in Inside Climate NewsBeneath the ocean’s surface, glaciers may be melting 10 to 100 times faster than previously believed, new research shows. Until now, scientists had a limited understanding of what happens under the water at the point where land-based glaciers meet the sea. Using a combination of radar, sonar and time-lapse photography, a team of researchers has […]
Tagged under: Oceans | Arctic | Predictions | Climate Change | Antarctic
Climate change made European heatwave at least five times likelier
2019-07-02 in The GuardianSearing heat shows crisis is ‘here and now’, say scientists, and worse than predicted
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | Heatwaves | Predictions | Climate Change
California was warned about climate change 30 years ago. Now it's feeling the effects
2019-06-27 in Los Angeles TimesA report issued in 1989 warned that California would see more droughts, floods, and fires under climate change. Those projections are now coming true.
Tagged under: Drought | Predictions | Climate Change | California
Scientists shocked by Arctic permafrost thawing 70 years sooner than predicted
2019-06-18 in The GuardianWeakened permafrost in Canadian Arctic a further sign that global climate crisis accelerating faster than scientists had feared
Tagged under: Arctic | Predictions
Delhi temperature: Delhi records all-time high of 48 degrees Celsius in June, heatwave to continue | Delhi News - Times of India
2019-06-11 (or before) in Times of IndiaMercury in Delhi, on Monday, crossed an all time high of 48 degrees Celsius. The IMD has predicted the heatwave to continue in the national capital. D
Tagged under: Heatwaves | Predictions
Humans causing shrinking of nature as larger animals die off
2019-05-23 in The GuardianAverage size of wild animals predicted to fall by a quarter in 100 years through extinctions
Tagged under: Predictions | Wildlife
David Attenborough, the voice of Our Planet: "Things are going to get worse"
2019-04-12 by in VoxThe voice of some of the most stunning nature documentaries ever made is pessimistic about the future of wildlife on earth.
Tagged under: David Attenborough | Wildlife | Predictions
Hockey stick graph - Wikipedia
2019-03-03 (or before) in WikipediaTagged under: Global Warming | Predictions | Science
Oxford Economics: Oil and Natural Gas Is Driving U.S. Economic Growth Across Sectors
2019-02-12 in Energy In Depth | A Project of IPAAFueled by record-setting oil and natural gas production, the U.S. extraction sector is poised to grow faster than any other industry this year, according to a new analysis by Oxford Economics. The research firm predicted that the oil, natural gas and mining sector could grow...
Tagged under: Predictions | Economics | Economic Growth
John Kerry: Europe must tackle climate change or face migration chaos
2018-11-16 in The GuardianThe ex-US secretary of state, speaking at a Guardian Live event, predicts mass movement from Africa
Tagged under: Predictions | Climate Change | Africa | European Union
Why climate change will likely be worse than the models predict
2013-09-04 by in blog.rsb.org.ukDr Aaron Thierry is a quantitative ecologist who recently graduated from The University of Sheffield’s Department of Animal and Plant Sciences. He is extremely concerned about the level of un…
Tagged under: Extreme Weather | IPCC | Predictions | Climate Change
Feed the Elephant - email us your links and listings
Stay in touch - sign up for our mailing list
Follow the Elephant on X/Twitter: @ElephantClimate
Website powered by cogapp: building a better online world