Source: arXiv.org e-Print archive

Articles from this source (7)

Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse

  2024-08-01 (or before) in arXiv.org e-Print archive

  Tagged under: Gulf Stream (AMOC) | Collapse

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Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023

  2024-07-19 (or before) in arXiv.org e-Print archive

In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 +/- 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 +/- 0.5%. This implies an unprecedented weakening of land and ocean sinks, and raises the question of where and why this reduction happened. Here we show a global net land CO2 sink of 0.44 +/- 0.21 GtC yr-1, the weakest since 2003. We used dynamic global vegetation models, satellites fire emissions, an atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements, and emulators of ocean biogeochemical and data driven models to de...

  Tagged under: Oceans | Drought

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Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?

  2023-07-02 (or before) in arXiv.org e-Print archive

Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm, a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on ...

  Tagged under: Climate Change | Antarctic | Albedo | Trees

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Global warming in the pipeline

  2023-03-31 (or before) in arXiv.org e-Print archive

Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C for doubled CO2 (2xCO2), with likely range 3.5-5.5°C. Greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing is 4.1 W/m2 larger in 2021 than in 1750, equivalent to 2xCO2 forcing. Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone -- after slow feedbacks operate -- is about 10°C. Human-made aerosols are a major climate forcing, mainly via their effect on clouds. We infer from paleoclimate data that ae...

  Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases | IPCC | Climate Change | Geoengineering

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Economists' erroneous estimates of damages from climate change

  2021-08-22 (or before) in arXiv.org e-Print archive

Economists have predicted that damages from global warming will be as low as 2.1% of global economic production for a 3$^\circ$C rise in global average surface temperature, and 7.9% for a 6$^\circ$C rise. Such relatively trivial estimates of economic damages -- when these economists otherwise assume that human economic productivity will be an order of magnitude higher than today -- contrast strongly with predictions made by scientists of significantly reduced human habitability from climate change. Nonetheless, the coupled economic and climate models used to make such predictions have been influential in the international climat...

  Tagged under: Economics | Tipping Points | Predictions | Climate Change | Collapse

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How persistent is civilization growth?

  2021-06-12 (or before) in arXiv.org e-Print archive

In a recent study (Garrett, 2011), I described theoretical arguments and empirical evidence showing how civilization evolution might be considered from a purely physical basis. One implication is that civilization exhibits the property of persistence in its growth. Here, this argument is elaborated further, and specific near-term forecasts are provided for key economic variables and anthropogenic CO2 emission rates at global scales. Absent some external shock, civilization wealth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions will continue to grow exponentially at an average rate of about 2.3% per year.

  Tagged under: Economics | Economic Growth

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Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning

  2019-06-16 (or before) in arXiv.org e-Print archive

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, and we, as machine learning experts, may wonder how we can help. Here we describe how machine learning can be a powerful tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping society adapt to a changing climate. From smart grids to disaster management, we identify high impact problems where existing gaps can be filled by machine learning, in collaboration with other fields. Our recommendations encompass exciting research questions as well as promising business opportunities. We call on the machine learning community to join the global effort against climate change...

  Tagged under: Greenhouse Gases | Climate Change | Electricity Grid

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